Figures of forecast farm incomes released by the Welsh Government this week have painted a mixed picture across the different farming sectors in Wales.
Whilst the figures, which are based on the Farm Business Survey, show that average farm business income across ‘All Farm Types’ is expected to be up by 16% to £25,500 for the year up to March 2017, drilling down further into the data, and looking at the comparative performance of the various sectors, reveals a mixed picture.
For dairy farmers, average income is forecast to be down by 25%, whilst lowland cattle and sheep farms and upland cattle and sheep farms are expected to show incomes up to 34% and 26% respectively.
Commenting on the forecast, NFU Cymru President Stephen James said the figures won't come as a 'big surprise' to anyone.
“The forecast incomes for the dairy sector are actually the lowest that the sector has seen since 2003-04. After what has been a particularly challenging couple of years for the dairy sector, we have seen some improvements in returns over the last few months.
“I very much hope that these improved returns are sustained and that the next set of income forecasts will make better reading than the current one.”
'Pretty low baseline'
Turning to beef and sheep, Mr James said that both lowland and upland beef and sheep producers are forecast to see a welcome increase in their incomes,.
He continued: “But it must of course be remembered that this increase is from a pretty low baseline. The increased income is in a large part driven by the fall in the value of the pound since the EU referendum, which has enhanced the value of the basic payment, and has led to better marketplace returns.
“Whilst I am pleased to see the fortunes of the beef and sheep sector improving, the forecast improvement has come about as a result of currency fluctuations. Unfortunately, these are not a sustainable basis for the viability of any business going forward, and what we need are adequate returns from the marketplace to ensure the viability of each and every farm business.
“These figures also serve to illustrate quite how dependant farmers in Wales are on the basic payment for a very significant proportion of their income.”
