Around 56,000 Romanian and Bulgarian workers are likely to migrate to Britain next year, according to new research from the Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr) published this week.
The report will be launched at the Romanian Cultural Institute in London where Immigration Minister Tony McNulty will speak.
ippr estimates that around 41,000 Romanians and 15,000 Bulgarians will come to work in Britain in the first year after their countries join the European Union. This estimate is based on what happened after the last EU enlargement in 2004. Although Romania and Bulgaria are poorer than the countries that joined last time, most migrating Romanians and Bulgarians will want to go to Italy, Spain and Greece because they are closer and have higher numbers already resident.
ippr argues that the Government should allow labour market access to Romanian and Bulgarian nationals to work in Britain when accession is expected in 2007 because:
new inflows are likely to be relatively small
the impacts on the UK labour market are likely to be positive
free access will have to be introduced eventually and a separate scheme would increase bureaucracy
those Romanians and Bulgarians already here would be able to regularise their status.
Allowing labour market access to workers after the 2004 enlargement has proved beneficial for the UK. Although the 117,000 new workers who came to Britain during the first year exceeded official estimates, their impact has been positive:
they made an estimated economic contribution of around £240 million to the British economy in the first year
less than 1 per cent even applied for income-related benefits
eight out of ten found work
as many as 53,000 regularised their work status and started to contribute to the public purse
most are working in jobs that are hard to fill, especially in factories, cleaning and caring
almost nine out of ten visitors from the new EU members stayed in the UK for less than three months
there is no evidence that the new workers have caused any rise in unemployment or depressed the wages of workers already in Britain.
Migration to the EU is likely to improve the Romanian and Bulgarian economies, reducing the incentive to find work abroad in the future. At this point, the UK will need to look further a field to fill its low-skilled labour demand.
Danny Sriskandarajah, ippr associate director, said:
“Romanian and Bulgarian accession should be seen as an opportunity not a threat. Workers from these countries will join an increasingly important Eastern European workforce currently doing hard-to-fill jobs in key sectors and regions.
“If the last EU enlargement is anything to go by, many people will get very worked up about migration from Romania and Bulgaria when they join the EU. But just as last time, we are likely to see turnstiles not floodgates as young and hard-working people come to the UK to work, save, learn English and go home.”