Allow for climate change when investing, farmers warned

Farmers and growers should account for climate change in their long-term business outlook, or else run the risk of making the wrong investment decisions.

The warning from Alvan Blanch, one of the UK's specialist agricultural engineering companies, follows last month's publication of the Stern Report outlining the economic consequences of climate change. It painted a grim picture of rising temperatures and economic decline if immediate steps to address carbon emissions are not taken.

"Stern's report described climate change as the 'greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen'," says Andrew Blanch, the company's managing director. "He also acknowledged that climate change is already happening, and that even drastic and immediate action will have little effect on the next 40 or 50 years.

"Climate change could have a dramatic effect on UK agriculture, particularly in the arable sector," Mr Blanch explains. "A rise in average temperatures of just one or two degrees will not only push up crop yields, but also widen the range of crops that are viable on UK farms.

"This prospect was highlighted at this year's Royal Show by Junior Environment Minister Ian Pearson, who specifically cited sunflower and soybeans as crops which could become viable," Mr Blanch adds.

Some farmers are already thinking about the options for new crops, with the current interest in grain maize reflected in the Maize Growers' Association's decision to host a Grain Maize Demonstration Day at Elveden Farms, Thetford, last week. There, growers heard about the opportunities – and difficulties – involved with switching to the novel crop.

"If, in ten to fifteen years' time we're able to grow, with little difficulty, sunflowers, hemp and grain maize in the UK, it's equally likely that the southern Mediterranean countries will have considerable difficulty. So not only would we have new crops, but new export markets too."

Yet grain drying and storage systems in the UK are configured to deal with traditional grain crops, points out Mr Blanch. "Many current on-floor systems struggle to cope even with grain maize – in the UK, it comes off the field at between 32 and 37% moisture – even though they will adequately handle wheat and barley. As an industry, we're only just realising that flexible systems should be order of the day.

"But that needn't mean over specification. When buying a tractor, you might opt for extra horsepower to cope with future expansion. But if you don't, it's not too much of a problem to upgrade it to a more powerful model – it has a relatively short operating life.

"Static equipment such as grain systems, on the other hand, have a much longer operational lifetime," Mr Blanch stresses. "Our research suggests that the average age of a UK on-farm grain drier, for example, is 25 years. Installed new today, it will be drying crops long after climate change starts to affect UK agriculture.

"It's wise for today's farmers to consider what they, or their successor, might be growing in 10, 20 or even 30 years' time before buying a grain system. Failure to keep an open mind could be a costly mistake."