ARGENTINA-EARLY ELECTIONS TO CATCH FARMERS OFF BALANCE.
A messy dispute with the farm sector has weakened Fernández de Kirchner’s administration and the economy has been slowing after six years of robust growth, although it has not yet suffered the mass layoffs and banking turmoil seen elsewhere.
The ruling party holds a majority in Congress but several high-profile figures have crossed to opposition ranks in recent months. Some left in protest at the government’s handling of the farm conflict over soy export taxes.
Critics said the government was trying to cut short opposition efforts to form alliances.
"They’re clearly trampling on the rules with this decision," said Margarita Stolbizer, a leading opposition figure from the Civic Coalition Party (See also story on Page 3). "The government has realized it’s in a weakened position going into the election."
Fernández de Kirchner’s popularity was a healthy 50 percent when she took office in December 2007 but, last month, only 29 percent of the public had a favorable image of her, according to a poll by the Poliarquia consultancy.
In another sign of her administration’s weakening hold on power, a ruling party alliance was comfortably defeated in local elections in the Catamarca province on Sunday. The election in Catamarca was won by the ruling-coalition headed by a governor of the Radical party until recently loyal to the Kirchners. Kirchner, in a bid to unite the splintered branch of the Peronist party, was personally involved in the campaign.
The President’s move followed an announcement by Buenos Aires Mauricio Macri, the head of the centre-right coalition PRO, to move up city legislative polls to June 28. Fernández de Kirchner urged provincial officials to set the same date for local elections.
Investors in the local bond and stock markets reacted warily.
’We’ve got a rule change in politics and this causes caution among investors,’ said Juan Diedrichs, an analyst at Capital Markets Argentina.
Bringing the elections forward could also complicate an opposition plan to reform the controversial grains export levies that triggered the ongoing conflict with farmers. Fernández de Kirchner has rejected farmers’ demands to lower the soy tax.
Meanwhile Santa Fe Governor Hermes Binner, a leader of the Socialist Party, said that "it’s not a good thing to change rules at the last minute." Binner said last night that municipal elections in Santa Fe province will be held in August as planned.
The elections — for half of the Lower House and a third of the Senate — are a big test for Fernández de Kirchner, who has seen her popularity plunge since she succeeded her husband Néstor Kirchner to the presidency 15 months ago.
The President said she would send a bill to Congress on Monday to change electoral laws to bring forward the ballot to June 28 from the scheduled October 25.
"It would be near suicide to plunge the society into a permanent political debate from now until October when the world’s falling apart and the bits could fall everywhere," she said.
Critics said the President wanted to change the election date out of fear her allies in Congress would be defeated as the worldwide downturn takes its toll on the economy.
"I think they’ve done this because they’re scared the impact of the global crisis will be greater in October than it is at the moment," said political analyst Graciela Romer.