CHINA-PORK PRODUCTION.
FAS Beijing forecasts China’s pork production will continue rising in 2009 to
48.8 million metric tons, though higher pork production and lower prices will
reduce 2009 pork imports by nearly half to 300,000 tons, according to a U.S.
Department of Agriculture attache report posted Thursday on the Foreign
Agricultural Services Web site.
China’s 2009 beef production is expected to decline two percent to six MMT,
as low beef producer returns dampen growth. Post forecasts China’s breeding
cow imports will rise seven percent to 16,000 head, fueled by genetic
improvement efforts in the dairy sector. China’s live swine imports are
expected to fall 25 percent from sharply higher levels in 2008 to under 9,000
head.
FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts continued steady growth in China’s total meat
production in 2009, rising four percent to 75.4 million metric tons (MMT).
Pork production is expected to approach 50 million metric tons, as producers
continue to recover from a devastating outbreak of blue ear disease in 2007.
Rising domestic pork shipments have been fueled by direct government subsidies
to quickly stimulate production and reduce consumer pork prices.
Post forecasts China’s beef production in 2009 will decline two percent to 6
MMT, as low beef producer returns dampen beef cow production. China maintains
a ban on U.S. bovine products, including beef and live cattle due to
BSE-related restrictions. Post expects China’s 2009 breeding cattle imports to
increase by seven percent to 16,000 head as a result of China’s stepped up
efforts to improve dairy genetics. Post forecasts 2009 Chinese direct imports
of beef will decrease by 10 percent to 9,000 MT, primarily due to slow sales of
high-end products. Significantly higher quantities of imported beef will
continue to move through gray channels. Post believes China’s live cattle and
beef exports in 2009 to decline by nine and 12 percent to 30,000 head and
52,000 tons respectively due to an impact of world-wide financial crisis.
Post forecasts China’s pork production in 2009 will rise by four percent to
48.7 MMT (CWE). Lower pork prices will fuel higher consumer pork demand
compared to 2008 levels. China’s breeding swine imports are expected to
decline 25 percent from last year’s record imports to 9,000 head as lower
prices hinder growth in piglet and fattening swine placement. Post forecasts
China’s 2009 live swine exports to rise three percent to 1.7 million head.
Post forecasts China’s 2009 pork exports to decrease by six percent to 210,000
tons due to weak demand from export markets impacted by the world financial
crisis.
In January 2009, seven Chinese government agencies announced a swine price
alert system and subsidy program designed to ensure pork producers earn
sufficient returns as prices fall and/or input costs rise. This is the first
time government agencies have joined forces to monitor pork producer returns
and ensure farm-level incentives are maintained, underscoring the importance
the government is placing on providing stable and sufficient pork supplies..