Drought sends grass growth 46% below average

Grass growth has fallen 46% below its recent average as worsening drought conditions raise fears of another winter forage shortage for livestock farmers.

Analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), using AHDB data, found growth in the week ending 31 July was 46% below the 2019-24 average. Across the latest three weeks of data, grass growth was running 43% below average.

The downturn has been particularly sharp because grass had performed relatively well through spring and early summer.

By the end of June, cumulative growth stood at 97% of the recent average and was ahead of the drought-hit 2025 season. But conditions deteriorated rapidly in July, with weekly growth falling from 94% of average in the week ending 3 July to 63% just seven days later.

By the end of the month, cumulative growth for the season had slipped to 90% of average as rainfall virtually disappeared.

ECIU said less than one millimetre of rain fell in England in the week ending 21 July, with month-to-date rainfall standing at just 3% of the long-term average. Soil moisture deficits also reached record levels for the time of year across north-east, central, south-east and south-west England.

The timing is particularly concerning for livestock farms because grass growth naturally slows from late summer, reducing the opportunity to recover forage lost during July.

ECIU modelling suggests the 2026 season could finish at between 77% and 86% of the recent average, with a central projection of 81%. That would represent a shortfall of around 2,200kg of dry matter per hectare.

Based on a dairy cow consuming between 15kg and 18kg of dry matter a day, ECIU estimates the deficit is equivalent to roughly four months of feed for one cow per hectare.

Even under its most optimistic scenario, where grass growth returns to normal for the remainder of the season, 2026 would finish at 86% of average. That would still be slightly below the 87% recorded during the drought year of 2025.

Farmers could therefore enter a second consecutive winter with tight forage supplies and stocks already depleted by the previous dry year.

Tom Cantillon, senior analyst for carbon and land at ECIU, said: “Grass is the cheapest feed British livestock farmers have, and this summer it has fallen to half its normal rate. Two short forage years back-to-back is a different proposition to one.”

“Farmers went into this summer carrying the costs of last year’s drought, and this will exacerbate the pressures they face.”

Farmers in several parts of Britain are already reporting pressure on grazing, silage production and water supplies.

Somerset farmer Holly Purdey said: “There's been no regrowth on our hay fields at all, so we can't wean lambs onto them the way we normally would. Our only natural water source has dried up and the water bill has gone through the roof.”

“We're eating into grazing we'd normally save for later, so we'll be feeding hay for longer this winter as well.”

In Denbighshire, farmer Sam Kenyon said the lack of grass had forced him to supplement sheep unusually early.

“I'm feeding sheep in July, which has been unheard-of for this place, and there’ll be no second cut of forage to sell in order to help balance the expense. Rotational grazing has thankfully bought me four to six weeks more grazing than if I had set stocked”

North Ceredigion farmer Rhodri Lloyd-Williams said silage production had also been badly affected, although investment in water supplies and shade had helped the farm cope.

“We're massively down on silage because the grass hasn't grown. The boreholes we've put in have helped enormously in allowing us to rotationally graze the cattle, and the trees we've planted are giving the stock shade they didn't used to have.”

The effects of the hot, dry summer are also being seen in dairy output. Separate ECIU analysis estimated that UK milk deliveries fell by 25 million pints during the May and June heatwaves.

Previous droughts indicate the financial consequences can continue well beyond the summer, with livestock businesses potentially facing higher feed costs, reduced animal productivity and pressure to sell stock to lower demand for forage.

A Scottish Government assessment following the 2018 drought estimated that a typical 110-cow upland suckler herd faced around £8,000 in additional costs from extended housing and higher straw prices, equivalent to a potential 19% reduction in beef enterprise gross margin.

With grazing already under pressure and winter forage stocks at risk of being depleted for a second year, farmers may increasingly have to rely on bought-in feed, longer housing periods or changes to stocking levels if grass growth fails to recover.