The Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) estimates a 45 percent increase in 2008 crop yields compared to 2007. Despite the improvement, up to 1.3 million people are expected to be food insecure by June 2009. This group is comprised of returnees, the chronically food insecure, and households negatively affected by conflicts, dry spells and flooding in 2008. These events, combined with an extremely fluid security situation across the south could increase food needs by 25 percent over 2008 estimates, which stood at 76,000 MT.
Mabaan County remains highly food insecure following severe, unseasonal flooding during October 2008. Neighboring areas have significant pockets of moderate food insecurity due to a combination of conflict, a prolonged dry spell, and late season flooding. Moderately food insecure conditions also prevail in the northwest, partly due to the impact of conflict in early 2008 and floodinginduced crop shortfalls. These food security conditions are likely to be maintained until August–October when the next harvest is expected across the region.
In the worst–case scenario, a combination of above normal cattle raiding, inter–clan conflicts, LRA attacks, and increased population return would exacerbate chronic food deficits that typically start in April–May and last through August.