Dairy cow numbers have fallen as the GB herd continues to contract
Great Britain’s dairy herd has fallen to its lowest level on record, with AHDB warning that a continued decline in youngstock could leave farmers facing tighter availability of replacement heifers.
The warning comes despite GB milk deliveries rising by 3% over the past year, as fewer cows continue to produce more milk.
AHDB analysis, based on the latest British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) figures, shows the GB milking herd stood at around 1.57 million head on 1 July 2026.
That was down 2.2% year-on-year, with the herd losing around 34,500 animals over the 12-month period.
The annual decline was the largest recorded since January 2021.
At the same time, GB milk deliveries totalled 12,931 million litres in the 12 months ending July 2026, up 3% on the previous year.
AHDB said the figures highlight continuing improvements in efficiency and productivity across the dairy sector, with higher milk volumes being delivered from a smaller national herd.
However, its analysis also points to a growing concern over the number of younger dairy females available to enter the herd in future years.
The dairy youngstock population stood at around 869,000 head on 1 July, down approximately 36,000 compared with a year earlier.
Numbers of dairy females aged under two fell by 2.2%, equivalent to around 19,500 head.
That was a steeper decline than the 1.8% reduction recorded over the equivalent period a year earlier.
AHDB said dairy female births have been falling consistently since early 2023, raising questions over whether enough replacement heifers will be available in the years ahead.
It linked the decline in replacement numbers partly to favourable dairy-beef economics and improvements in sexed semen technology, which have enabled producers to be more selective about breeding dairy replacements.
The largest annual fall was among cattle aged between two and four years, where numbers dropped by 3.9%, equivalent to around 29,800 head.
Cattle aged between four and six years were the only age category to increase, rising by 0.5%, or just over 2,500 head.
Meanwhile, numbers of cows aged six to eight years and those over eight years both declined.
AHDB suggested previously strong milk and beef prices may have encouraged farmers to retain older cows for longer.
As milk prices later weakened, some of those animals may then have been culled after producing another calf.
Overall, the latest figures point to a continuing shift in the GB dairy sector, with fewer cows producing a greater volume of milk.
While stronger productivity has so far allowed milk deliveries to rise from a smaller herd, AHDB’s analysis suggests the declining pipeline of youngstock could become increasingly important as farmers look to replace older cows in the years ahead.