Milk deliveries fell in August as heat stress and forage concerns weighed on dairy production
Milk deliveries in Britain fell 4.5% year-on-year in August as extreme heat hit cow yields and concerns grew over winter forage supplies and bluetongue.
AHDB estimates deliveries totalled 992 million litres during the month, 46 million litres below August 2025, with daily volumes averaging 32 million litres.
Supplies for the milk year to date, from April to August, are now 2.5% below 2025 levels, while deliveries from January to August are down 0.5% year-on-year.
Volumes began August below last year's levels before falling more sharply during the second and third weeks of the month, when extreme heat reduced cow yields through heat stress.
Conditions improved towards the end of the month as temperatures fell and some rain returned. In the week ending 29 August, deliveries were 3.9% below year-earlier levels and finished just below the five-year average.
Pressure on supplies is also being compounded by a shrinking dairy herd.
The latest British Cattle Movement Service figures show the GB dairy herd contracted by 2.2% in the 12 months to 1 July 2026, with AHDB saying the milking herd has now reached its “lowest level on record”.
Forage availability is another growing concern ahead of winter.
Data from AHDB’s Forage for Knowledge programme shows grass growth running “below the 5-year average”, with significant variation between regions. Some areas recorded no growth, although Scotland and parts of the North were less affected by the heat and drought.
The levy organisation warned that winter forage availability could be affected following the prolonged spell of extreme temperatures, with some farmers already using feed that would normally be reserved for later in the year.
Milk contract prices have continued to rise into September, while further positive price announcements have been made for October as processors look to secure future supplies.
However, AHDB said recent increases will still leave many contracts below the cost of production.
Bluetongue is adding further uncertainty for the dairy sector, with the virus spreading more widely across England, Wales and southern Scotland.
AHDB said bluetongue will remain a key watchpoint for dairy producers, with the potential to reduce milk production further if the spread continues.