Geopolitics tops growing threats to UK food security

More than nine in 10 food industry leaders and academics say risks to the UK food system have worsened over the past year, while every respondent believes government policy has failed to strengthen its resilience.

New research from the Institute of Grocery Distribution’s (IGD) found that 91% of respondents thought food system risks had increased during the previous 12 months.

Geopolitical instability was ranked as the biggest threat over the next five years, followed by climate change, water pressures and challenges facing agriculture.

The findings point to growing pressure on domestic food production, with farmers increasingly exposed to extreme weather, water shortages, disease risks and disruption across input and supply chains.

IGD said international conflict, extreme weather, rising costs and fragile supply chains were placing mounting pressure on the food and grocery sector.

Food-system economics ranked as the fifth-biggest risk, followed by labour and skills shortages and animal disease.

Cyber-security, biodiversity loss and poor supply chain visibility completed the top 10 threats identified by respondents.

While geopolitics ranked as the most immediate concern, IGD said climate change could prove the greater long-term threat because of its knock-on effects on water supplies, agricultural production and biodiversity.

The findings form part of IGD’s third annual resilience report, Thriving in a Volatile World, which also sets out a series of policy recommendations aimed at strengthening the UK food system.

IGD argues that food and nutrition security should be treated as a national security priority, with greater government ambition needed to protect domestic food production and make supply chains more resilient.

The organisation identifies persistent labour shortages, volatile global markets, the transition to net zero and chronic profitability pressures as areas requiring further action.

Among its recommendations is a national workforce strategy for food and drink, with IGD noting the sector accounts for one in eight UK jobs and plays a central role in national food security.

The report also calls for planning reforms designed to make it easier for sectors including poultry and horticulture to expand.

IGD wants government action to support greater domestic production of nitrogen fertiliser using UK oil and gas, arguing that reducing reliance on volatile imports would strengthen food production.

It is also calling for a net-zero finance plan focused on how the agricultural transition will be funded, with support from the Transition Finance Council.

The report raises concerns about the financial burden of regulation on the food industry and its effect on prices.

It states that “30-40% of current food inflation is driven by government policy” and recommends using the planned Food Inflation Gateway to assess the cumulative financial impact of regulation.

IGD said such an approach should also create a stronger feedback mechanism to prevent new and existing policies from having unintended effects on business profitability and food prices.

Kathryn Reynolds, senior resilience manager at IGD, said building resilience was becoming an increasingly urgent priority across the food system.

She warned that businesses could no longer rely solely on responding once disruption had already occurred.

“For food businesses, reacting to disruption is no longer enough. Organisations must anticipate change, invest in capability and build supply chains that can withstand shocks, adapt quickly and thrive in a rapidly changing world.”

The report argues that protecting domestic food production will require a broader government response spanning labour, planning, fertiliser security, agricultural finance and the cost of regulation as geopolitical and climate pressures intensify.