Meat industry representatives urge farm expansion as AHDB forecasts falling UK beef, lamb and pork production in 2027
The government is being urged to approve farm expansion plans to protect Britain's food security, as new forecasts predict falling UK beef, lamb and pork production in 2027.
The Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (AIMS) has called for greater support for agricultural investment, warning that declining domestic production and a growing population could place further pressure on future food supplies.
The warning follows updated Agri Market Outlooks from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), highlighting tightening livestock supplies, rising production costs and continued pressure on consumer demand.
UK beef production is forecast to fall by 0.8% to 896,000 tonnes in 2027, while sheep meat output is expected to decline by 2.4% to 262,000 tonnes.
Pig meat production is also predicted to drop by 3.7% to around 979,000 tonnes, reflecting shrinking breeding herds and continued pressure on producer margins.
Tony Goodger, head of communications at AIMS, welcomed the forecasts, highlighting their importance for meat processors and businesses throughout the supply chain.
“AHDB’s updated market analysis is timely and very welcome as it will help our members, be they abattoirs or further along the supply chain, to make better informed business decisions for the short and medium term,” he said.
However, he stressed that falling meat production, alongside expected population growth, made investment in British farming increasingly important.
He called on ministers to approve planning applications from farms seeking to expand and invest, including those in the poultry sector.
“If the government is truly of the view that food security is national security then it is essential that they ensure that every planning application received from every farm, including from the poultry sector, wishing to invest in the country’s economy is passed”, he said.
AHDB's analysis suggests tighter cattle and sheep supplies will continue to underpin livestock prices, despite weaker consumer confidence and economic uncertainty.
Beef imports and exports are both forecast to increase by 3% in 2026, although elevated retail prices are expected to continue restricting domestic consumption.
Lamb demand is also expected to remain under pressure, with consumption forecast to fall in 2026 and 2027. Strong European Union demand should support exports, although reduced UK production could restrict growth.
Bluetongue remains a further risk to sheep production, potentially affecting ewe fertility and future lamb crops, depending on disease spread and vaccination uptake.
The dairy sector faces similar pressures, with GB milk production forecast to decline by 2.2% during the 2026/27 season, followed by a further 1.1% fall in the first half of 2027/28.
Meanwhile, tighter pig supplies are expected to support gradually strengthening prices, although rising input costs and European market conditions could limit improvements in profitability.
David Swales, head of economics and analysis at AHDB, said: “The outlooks reinforce the increasingly important role of supply in shaping market outcomes, particularly in the beef and lamb sectors.”
He warned that businesses would also need to remain alert to disease risks, changing trade patterns and ongoing cost pressures.
The pork and dairy forecasts were released on Wednesday, 14 October, with the beef and lamb outlooks scheduled for publication on Friday, 16 October.
With domestic livestock supplies expected to tighten, AIMS is calling for greater support for farm investment and planning approvals to help maintain Britain's food production capacity in the years ahead.