Scientists reject one-size-fits-all sheep stocking rate for Lake District

Researchers say habitat recovery and viable hill farming can work together when grazing is managed to suit local conditions

A widely cited sheep stocking rate of 0.5 ewes per hectare should not be treated as a blanket target across the Lake District fells, according to a new independent scientific review.

The review found that habitat recovery and viable hill farming can work together, but said grazing levels should be tailored to individual sites rather than based on a single figure.

Commissioned through the Grazing for Good project, the review examined the role of livestock grazing in the uplands and its impact on farming, nature, landscape and wider public goods.

A central focus was the 0.5 ewes/ha figure included in Natural England’s 2020 report, Grazing regimes for nature recovery.

That figure was presented as an annual average at which habitat recovery had sometimes been observed.

However, the independent panel concluded that it was drawn mainly from local observation rather than a broader body of scientific evidence.

Researchers said it should therefore be treated as a cautious local reference point, not a target to be applied across the fells.

The review also recorded Natural England’s position that its advice is informed by site surveys, habitat condition assessments and professional judgement.

Scientists found that habitat condition is influenced by far more than sheep numbers alone.

Nitrogen deposition, burning, climate change, deer pressure, historic land management and the timing and pattern of grazing were all identified as important factors.

The review also found that some upland habitats can require continued grazing to maintain their condition.

In areas already dominated by purple moor-grass, removing sheep can allow coarse vegetation to build up and crowd out smaller plants.

Abby Cook, NSA project manager, said: “This review gives everyone with an interest in the fells the same evidence to work from, and its clearest message is there is no magic number.”

She added: “What works on one fell may not work on the next, so decisions need to be made with the farmers and commoners who manage each area.”

The review also looked at the financial impact of stocking decisions on upland farms.

According to the Defra Farm Business Survey, agri-environment and other scheme payments accounted for just under 59% of farm business income on upland livestock farms in England in 2024/25.

The panel said that meant changes to stocking levels should be judged against the viability of the whole farm, rather than the fell grazing calendar alone.

NSA chief executive Phil Stocker said the findings showed the relationship between sheep and upland recovery was more complex than is sometimes suggested.

“Sheep grazing is often presented as the problem in our uplands, and this independent review shows the picture is more complex than that,” he said.

“A key finding of the review is that timing and pattern of grazing matters.”

Mr Stocker said the findings supported a more targeted approach to management, adding: “The right sheep in the right place at the right time really matters.”

The review was carried out by academics and scientists from the James Hutton Institute, Scotland’s Rural College, Exeter University, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Oxford University.

The Grazing for Good project was initiated by the Herdwick Sheep Breeders’ Association, the Federation of Cumbrian Commoners and West Lakeland CIC, and is managed by the National Sheep Association.

It was launched following changes to stocking levels in Higher Level Stewardship rollover agreements from 2020.

The project runs until December 2027, with phase two due to begin later in 2026.

Responses to the independent review will be used to shape the next stage of the work.