Scotland’s iconic beef herd set to shrink further, survey suggests

Scotland’s iconic beef herd is set to shrink even further while its flock size could increase, according to NFU Scotland's intentions survey.

The survey points to further shrinkage in the sector, with many farmers reducing cow numbers alongside indications that some are replacing them with sheep.

Supported by Quality Meat Scotland (QMS), the survey was set up to assess the scale of change that unprecedented input costs and flat-lining output prices are having on business plans across all sectors.

The responses from 339 livestock farmers point to an average beef herd size reduction of 4% versus last year, but an average increase in flock size of 2%.

According to the Scottish government agricultural census, between 2011 and 2021, there was a 12% decline in the total Scottish beef herd to 413,000 cows.

Over the same period, the Scottish ewe flock has fallen by less than 3 percent to 2.57 million ewes in 2021.

The analysis of responses indicates that, to improve resilience, livestock farmers are already reducing fertiliser usage and increasing the amount of home-grown feeds.

And in terms of making a difference for the sector, an increase in price at slaughter and retail would be the most helpful for beef and sheep farmers.

Respondents to NFU Scotland's survey are also supportive of an increased marketing drive around Scotch beef and lamb.

Other mechanisms highlighted as being helpful included greater clarity from Scottish government on how future support for beef and sheep producers will be delivered and what conditionality will be attached to payments.

Discussions with other farmers, vets and advisors were deemed the best way of gathering information on how to improve their business.

NFU Scotland's livestock committee chair Hugh Fraser, a beef and sheep producer near Inverness, said the results highlighted the scale and depleting confidence levels of beef-producing members.

“All livestock businesses are unique in that we are making business decisions which we will not see the returns from for two to three years," he said.

"That is why it is imperative that the industry is given support and clarity from the Scottish government on the future so that we can confidently invest in our farms.

“The Scottish livestock sector must be acknowledged for the critical role it plays in a sustainable healthy diet, supporting domestic food security, and supporting biodiversity.

"NFUS urges the Scottish government to bare this in mind when designing future support to ensure beef and sheep farmers can reach their full potential."