Scotland's pig farmers face mounting pressure as rising costs and weak prices continue to squeeze margins
Scotland's pig industry faces a sharp decline in production next year after sow slaughter surged 52%, raising fresh concerns over the sector's future as farmers battle rising costs and weak prices.
Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) has warned that the increase in sow slaughter could significantly reduce the country's pig supply in 2027, with consequences for the wider pork supply chain.
The warning comes as GB pig prices remain 10% to 12% below last year's levels, despite a modest recovery in September, while higher feed, fuel and borrowing costs continue to squeeze producer margins.
Iain Macdonald, QMS Market Intelligence Manager, said the recent improvement in prices had done little to ease the financial pressure facing farmers.
“The September price lift is welcome, but it has not changed the underlying pressure on the pig sector. Prices remain well below last year, feed costs have moved higher, and producer margins are likely to have tightened further.”
Competition from cheaper European pork is adding to the difficulties, with GB pig prices standing 37.5% above EU levels during the final week of September.
Increased pork availability across Europe and weaker prices in major global markets, including the United States, China and Brazil, are placing further pressure on British producers.
Meanwhile, Scottish pig movement data shows a sharp increase in animals leaving farms for slaughter, indicating improved productivity across the sector.
Abattoir slaughter numbers have also risen following a quieter period, although the sharp increase in breeding sows being slaughtered has raised concerns about the industry's future production capacity.
Macdonald warned that the trend could have serious consequences for Scotland's pig industry and the businesses that depend on it.
“Sow slaughter at Scottish abattoirs has risen by 52% compared with 2025, pointing to a much smaller Scottish pig supply base in 2027, with knock-on implications for the wider pig meat supply chain and its associated economic impact.”
Across Great Britain, pig availability has increased significantly during 2026, with England's June livestock census recording higher pig numbers than expected.
Heavier carcase weights have also contributed to increased production, adding to the imbalance between supply and demand.
QMS reported an unusually strong increase in carcase weights between August and September, which, although supporting the value of individual pigs, has increased the overall volume of pork entering the market.
The additional supply could delay a recovery in prices, particularly while consumer demand remains fragile and cheaper European pork continues to compete with British production.
UK processors have secured additional pork export opportunities during 2026, but average prices achieved in EU markets have fallen significantly.
Export values in non-EU markets have also weakened following a stronger start to the year, while pig offal exports have declined in both volume and value.
Despite UK pork production increasing by approximately 5% this year, overall supplies available to the domestic market have fallen because of reduced imports and higher exports.
However, the reduction in available supplies has failed to deliver a sustained improvement in prices, suggesting continued weakness in overall pork demand.
There has been some encouragement in Scotland's domestic market, with Worldpanel by Numerator figures showing continued growth in fresh pork retail sales despite the wider market difficulties.
Nevertheless, QMS believes the combination of rising production costs, increased pig availability and international competition will continue to weigh on producer confidence.
While a reduction in production and stronger consumer demand could eventually support prices, the global pork market remains well supplied and export returns have softened.
The longer-term outlook is particularly concerning for Scotland, where elevated sow slaughter levels are expected to lead to a substantial contraction in pig production next year.
Macdonald warned that sustained improvements in profitability would be essential to restoring confidence following another difficult period for the industry.
“The elevated sow kill seen this year means Scottish production is expected to fall sharply in 2027, and the sector will need sustained improvement in returns before confidence can rebuild, especially as this is the second crisis for the sector in the last five years.”