Scottish prime cattle numbers rise as herd decline eases

Scotland’s prime cattle pipeline strengthened in spring 2026, with numbers aged 12 to 30 months rising by 1.6% as the decline in the breeding herd slowed.

The increase was twice the rate recorded in January and offered a more encouraging signal for future beef supplies, according to Quality Meat Scotland.

Numbers in the key 18-to-24-month category rose by 2% following little change over the winter. Cattle aged 12 to 18 months increased by 1.4%, while older prime cattle numbers climbed by 1.3%, potentially increasing the number available for finishing later in the year.

Iain Macdonald, market intelligence manager at Quality Meat Scotland, said the position north of the border was stronger than across the wider British market.

“The latest picture in Scotland contrasts with the wider GB market, where supply remains considerably tighter,” he said.

Mr Macdonald added that cattle numbers south of the border could begin to stabilise by the end of the year.

The increase in younger cattle has not yet weakened store prices. Auction volumes have remained restricted, while prices have generally stayed above 2025 levels.

QMS said this could reflect a continuing shortage of suckler-bred calves and the movement of beef-sired dairy calves through dedicated supply chains rather than traditional store markets.

Under-30-month slaughter fell more sharply than expected in 2025 and remained subdued during the first half of 2026. QMS modelling suggests the Scottish cattle kill could rise by less than 1% this year if slaughter rates partially recover.

Reduced heifer slaughter continues to limit throughput, although heavier carcase weights have helped maintain beef production volumes.

Movements of Scottish-born cattle to England also remain an important factor in slaughter availability. Transfers to English farms and auction markets have fallen from their 2022 peak but remain elevated, with the pattern continuing during the first quarter of 2026.

Direct movements to English abattoirs increased compared with 2025.

Scotland’s breeding herd continued to contract, although the pace of decline eased. There were 386,300 beef-sired females aged over 30 months on Scottish holdings in April 2026, down 1.5% from a year earlier.

This was the smallest annual fall recorded since mid-2022, while more recent data from the ScotEID livestock identification system suggests the rate of decline may have slowed further to about 1%.

Beef-sired female numbers aged 24 to 30 months also rebounded in April after three consecutive quarters of annual decline. That recovery could support the herd during the main breeding season, although QMS said stronger momentum would be needed before genuine stability was achieved.

The contraction remains steeper in England and Wales, where beef-sired female numbers over 30 months fell by 2.4% in April.

UK beef imports were broadly stable during the first five months of 2026, while exports increased significantly. Ireland remained the largest overseas supplier, although its share of imports fell from 74% to 64% over the previous year.

New Zealand and Australia increased their presence in the market. Lower average prices for New Zealand beef suggest shipments were more heavily focused on manufacturing-grade meat than premium cuts.

Mr Macdonald said the Scottish beef industry was moving towards “a period of cautious stabilisation”.

Calf prices have remained firm and finished cattle prices have recovered from their low point, but finishing margins have been significantly squeezed over the past year.

Beef cow numbers also remain a concern, meaning the sector is still some distance from sustained growth.

“Whilst the general direction of travel appears more positive than it has been for several years, sustained progress will be needed before the sector can be considered on a growth trajectory,” Mr Macdonald said.