Scottish red meat output hits record £4.2bn

Scotland’s red meat sector generated a record £4.2 billion in output during 2025, but falling livestock numbers and severe pressure on pig producers threaten future growth.

Quality Meat Scotland said beef, lamb and pork farming, processing and associated supply chains contributed £1.3 billion in gross value added and supported around 40,000 jobs.

The sector’s combined economic impact rose by 18.5% during the year, driven largely by stronger cattle and sheep prices.

Prime cattle prices averaged about £6.60 per kilogram deadweight, up 30.3% on 2024.

The value of cattle, sheep and pig farming increased by 17.6% to £1.9 billion, while primary processing rose by 20.2% to £1.36 billion.

Higher farmgate prices supported producer confidence, while underlying demand remained strong for foods naturally high in protein.

However, a 30% increase in the retail price of beef influenced purchasing decisions, with some shoppers moving towards cheaper cuts and alternative proteins.

QMS chief executive Sarah Millar said: “These figures underline the scale, strength and continued importance of Scotland’s red meat sector.”

She said beef, lamb and pork continued to deliver substantial economic value while supporting businesses and communities, including those in remote and rural areas.

However, she warned that higher prices had reduced purchase volumes despite continued consumer demand for Scottish red meat.

QMS said strong cattle and sheep values had increased the sector’s economic contribution, but also reflected tight supplies and long-term structural pressures.

The sheep sector benefited from record producer prices, export growth and signs of flock recovery.

Average Scottish prime sheep prices reached a record £3.28 per kilogram liveweight, representing an increase of 52.1% over five years.

Improved lambing rates and a recovery in Scottish abattoir production also helped rebuild confidence following three years of decline in the ewe flock.

Despite the stronger economic figures, QMS warned that falling beef cow and pig numbers posed a longer-term threat to the sector.

The rate of decline in Scotland’s beef cow herd slowed to 1.4% year on year in December 2024, but numbers remained 10.4% below 2021 levels.

The continued movement of store and finished livestock out of Scotland also limited the amount of economic value retained within the country.

However, the flow of store cattle to finishers in England and Wales slowed further from the peak recorded in 2022.

QMS’s Meating Our Potential campaign estimates that rebuilding livestock numbers could generate an additional £350 million in output and £100 million in gross value added by 2032.

The campaign secured pledges from the UK and Scottish governments and around 30 agri-food organisations during 2025.

QMS said it also recorded a reach of more than five million people in Scotland.

Rural Affairs Secretary Gillian Martin said the report demonstrated the importance of red meat production to the economy and rural communities.

“This is testament to the hard work of all involved, starting with production on farm, all the way through the supply chain,” she said.

Ms Martin said the Scottish Government would continue working with industry partners to support a resilient and sustainable future for the sector.

QMS also warned that a growing UK population and declining domestic livestock production could increase reliance on imported meat.

It said hospitality businesses were increasingly switching from domestic products to more competitively priced beef from outside the European Union.

Non-EU beef accounted for around 25% to 30% of UK imports during the second half of 2025, compared with about 10% previously.

QMS said imports of high-value cuts could have a disproportionate effect on the domestic market by disrupting the value of the entire carcase.

It noted that the imported volume of striploins from 22 cattle was equivalent in weight to one complete domestic carcase.

The organisation said strengthening domestic production was increasingly important amid geopolitical instability and concerns over food security and supply-chain resilience.

Conditions in Scotland’s pig sector deteriorated during the second half of 2025.

A backlog of pigs on farms led to more carcases exceeding target weights, increasing production costs and weakening farmgate prices.

Low EU pig and pork prices added further pressure across the supply chain.

European prices fell amid increased production, higher Chinese tariffs on EU pork and an African swine fever outbreak in Spain, which disrupted exports from the bloc’s largest pork producer.

Conditions worsened further during the first half of 2026, with Scottish pig prices falling well below production costs.

Breeding sow slaughter at Scottish abattoirs increased by 34% during that period.

QMS said the number slaughtered was equivalent to 12% of the breeding sows recorded in the June 2025 census.

The Scottish Government responded by announcing £2 million in direct support for independent pig producers most severely affected by the crisis.

QMS market intelligence manager Iain Macdonald said: “The 2025 data tells a powerful story of value, demand and opportunity, but also of pressure points that need urgent attention.”

He said the sheep sector’s performance demonstrated what could be achieved when demand, trade opportunities and production momentum aligned.

However, he warned that the pig sector remained under severe strain and Scotland’s beef herd was too small to reduce import reliance and safeguard food security.

“Stabilising breeding numbers, continued productivity improvements, retaining more value in Scotland and restoring confidence across the supply chain are essential if we are to capture the growth opportunity ahead,” he added.