The ongoing political uncertainty means that the threat of a 'no-deal' Brexit still looms large, and that outcome would be a “nightmare” for the farming industry.
As the agricultural industry looks ahead to one of the highlights in the UK livestock calendar, the Royal Welsh Winter Fair, farmers in Wales remain anxious about the prospect of a “nightmare” no-deal Brexit, according to NFU Cymru.
The livestock classes at the annual Royal Welsh Winter Fair are renowned for hosting some of the finest primestock in the world.
However, this year’s event is likely to be the last with the UK still being a member of the European Union.
The ongoing uncertainty farmers are facing follows Prime Minister Theresa May saying that rejecting her Brexit deal will lead to “division and uncertainty”.
She now has to persuade MPs to back her deal, following a stamp of approval by EU leaders at a summit on Sunday.
Parliament will decide in a vote around the 12 December on whether to accept or reject the her deal.
But NFU Cymru Livestock Board Chairman, Wyn Evans said the threat of a 'no deal' scenario is “still at the door” and farmers are “rightly worried”.
“It is clear that opportunities exist for the Welsh farming industry in a future outside of the European Union, but even the most optimistic of Welsh farmers will be wincing when it comes to considering a future where we crash out of the EU and fall back on WTO terms,” he said.
Exports of Welsh lamb would face an effective tariff rate of 46%, whilst for beef effective rates would be higher at anything between 48% and 84% according to the cut.
At the same time, the industry could see the UK Government lower or remove import tariffs on imported food.
Mr Evans added: “A no deal scenario will see the UK needing to be recognised as a third country by the EU, with our access to our closest and largest market closed until this approval is gained. It’s a process dependent on political will but which could take six months or longer.”
'Ongoing uncertainty'
Earlier this month, farmers gave a cautious welcome to the withdrawal agreement and political declaration.
The withdrawal agreement provides for a transition period of almost two years, during which time everything remains largely the same, and would offer the industry some stability.
But the recently-announced political declaration, which considers the UK's trading relationship with the EU27 after the end of the transition, falls short of guaranteeing frictionless trade that farmers are desperately seeking.
However, there is talk of a comprehensive agreement on a free-trade area, with provisions ensuring zero tariffs, no fees, charges or quantitative restrictions across all sectors.
Mr Evans said: “The time has come for politicians across all parties to put their political differences aside to secure a future that is in the interest of the people of the UK and Welsh farmers, in particular.
“Farming is a long term business and the ongoing uncertainty over our future relationship with the EU makes it extremely difficult for farmers to take decisions that will affect their businesses long into the future. It’s time that uncertainty was put to bed.”
