PM change unlikely to ease pressure on farmers, rural experts warn
A change in Labour leadership is unlikely to bring relief for farmers, with rural policy expected to remain under pressure from tax, regulation and shifting farm support, the Central Association of Agricultural Valuers has warned.
The warning comes amid speculation over what a change in Prime Minister could mean for the rural economy.
Andy Burnham is widely expected to win the race to become Labour leader, but the CAAV said rural professionals should be cautious about assuming major policy change would follow.
Jeremy Moody, secretary and adviser to the CAAV, said there remained significant uncertainty over what a Burnham premiership could mean for farming.
Speaking at the CAAV President’s Conference in Durham, he said: “A lot of things have been said by him, and a lot of things have been unsaid by him.”
The CAAV said farming had so far received little attention in the leadership debate, despite growing pressure on the rural sector.
Mr Moody warned that the focus appeared to be more on consumer costs than the future of domestic food production.
He said: “The talk is more about capping food prices than supporting food production.”
Mr Moody also warned against reading too much into current speculation, saying: “So much of the current talk is just people projecting their hopes and fears onto his uncertain canvas.”
Mr Burnham has previously floated ideas including land taxation to fund social care, higher taxes on wealth and aligning capital gains tax rates with income tax bands.
However, Mr Moody said large reforms would be difficult to deliver quickly.
He said: “If he knows what he wants, he would have to move very quickly, and very firmly, in a handful of weeks to get anything big done.”
He warned that any incoming Prime Minister would immediately face wider political pressures, including appointing a Chancellor, setting defence and energy policies and preparing for a General Election within the next two or three years.
Mr Moody said those pressures could limit the scope for major change, adding: “He faces many much larger problems that came nowhere near the Mayor of Manchester’s in tray; it could easily be that we are looking at a re-run of the past two years.”
There is also little political appetite to revisit recent Inheritance Tax changes, which have now been in force for two months, according to the CAAV.
Mr Moody said: “Any changes will depend on a General Election, so for now we just need to get on with it.”
The most immediate policy pressure for farmers may come from water regulation, with the CAAV warning that the Clean Water Bill could bring tighter controls on agricultural pollution.
For farmers, this could mean greater scrutiny of slurry, nutrient management and run-off risks.
Mr Moody said: “The Clean Water Bill is coming, bringing regulation of agricultural pollution. While there is a focus on water companies at the moment, the knife will spin, so farmers need to get compliant before it does.”
The CAAV also warned that future farm support could move away from smaller Sustainable Farming Incentive-style actions, such as buffer strips, and towards larger environmental schemes, including habitat creation.
Mr Moody said the new Farming Roadmap pointed towards phasing out payments for buffer strips and the conversion of farming systems, with money moving to support larger changes.
He warned: “The Sustainable Farming Incentive is to be a transitional scheme, as the regulatory baseline and expectations rise.”
The warning leaves farmers facing continued uncertainty over tax, environmental regulation and the future shape of support payments.
Mr Moody said the rural sector also faced little sign of the economic growth needed to ease pressure on public finances.
He said: “Nothing yet suggests that Burnham, any more than Starmer and Reeves, understands what is needed to recover growth and so the means to pay for what we want.”
