Scotland's sheep sector could add £77m by 2032, QMS says

Scotland’s sheep sector could add £77 million to output by 2032 if producers, processors and the wider supply chain work together to meet rising lamb demand.

New economic modelling from Quality Meat Scotland suggests the sector could also generate an additional £21m in Gross Value Added over the same period.

The findings were presented by QMS, with support from the National Sheep Association Scotland, to hundreds of producers at Scotsheep 2026 on 10 June.

The work builds on QMS’s 2025 beef sector analysis with the Scottish Red Meat Resilience Group.

QMS said the modelling highlights a Scottish supply gap driven by demographic change and rising consumer demand for high-quality, healthy protein.

It said this could create demand for an additional 4,300 tonnes of sheep meat by 2032.

Meeting that demand would require Scotland’s lamb numbers to rise by 5%.

In practice, QMS said this would mean a few more ewes per holding each year over the next six years.

The key challenge is not just producing more lamb, but retaining more finishing and processing value within Scotland.

QMS said there remained a large net outflow of store and finished lambs to England and Wales.

It said demand from English finishers and processors for Scottish-born lambs was likely to continue because of the contraction in England’s sheep flock.

Kate Rowell, QMS chair, said: “Our research shows there is persistent strong demand for Scottish lamb and a significant opportunity to produce and process more at home.

“The market signals are encouraging, with stronger demand in the UK, a falling EU sheep flock, and a drop in lamb production in England.

“Combined with significant productivity gains in Scotland over the past decade, we have considerable scope to capture more value from the sector.”

QMS said Scotland’s climate and landscape placed it in a strong position to support food security, economic growth and environmental outcomes.

The levy body said making better use of domestic processing capacity would be central to keeping more value in Scotland.

Ms Rowell said: “It is therefore vital that the full Scottish red meat supply chain is positioned respond to this opportunity.

“Demand is strong, the market fundamentals are positive, and Scotland is well placed to respond.

“The focus now must be on capturing more of that value at home, supporting rural communities and helping drive sustainable economic growth.”

Alec Telfer, chairman of NSA Scotland, said the modelling represented a clear opening for the industry.

He said: “NSA Scotland is delighted to support this work led by QMS, particularly as it is funded by producers and rooted in the needs of the sector.

“It represents a fantastic opportunity for our industry to respond to clear market demand and to retain more of that value within Scotland.”

QMS said the sheep sector’s importance went beyond its direct economic contribution.

Social research commissioned by the levy body found sheep farming remained a defining feature of rural Scotland and an important part of the country’s environmental, social and cultural fabric.

Ms Rowell said: “Sheep support mixed farming systems and are part of more than half of Scotland’s farm businesses, with 90% being kept in less favoured areas, contributing to remote and disadvantaged regions.

“The sector is central to Scotland’s national identity and tourism offer, supports rural cohesion and communities, and maintains biodiversity reducing wildfire risk particularly in upland areas, reducing flooding risk and supporting carbon sequestration through natural land management by livestock grazing.”

QMS said the research strengthened the case for a coordinated, whole-supply-chain approach to growth.

It said this would help Scotland respond to rising demand, strengthen food security and maximise the value created from the country’s natural livestock strengths.