'Christmas turkey to lift retail gloom'

An optimistic outlook for traditional Christmas turkeys — despite the High Street gloom — is predicted by Paul Kelly, managing director of Kelly Turkeys.

"Will recession and the credit crunch affect Christmas sales of premium turkey? That is the big question," says Mr Kelly.

"The theory would suggest yes — but the reality is probably no. Our sales records show that during the early 90s when the economy was in deep recession, our volumes from the farm gate did not drop. Most people are not prepared to compromise on the festive feast."

He points to the major retailers increasing their order for premium fresh turkeys over 2007 anticipating higher demand, even though prices to them have gone up by 15 per cent.

Retail beef and pork prices are higher by 26 and 33 per cent respectively with ribs of beef at around £15 per kg, "making turkey great value."

"In an economic downturn the number of people eating out at Christmas Day falls and people treat themselves to a feast at home," says Mr Kelly.

He forecasts retail prices varying from £4 to £4.49/kg for standard fresh, £6 to £6.99 for free range, £7.49 to 8.99 for bronze free range and £8.99 to £12.99 for organic.

Even though frozen turkeys retail at a substantial discount to fresh — at £1.20 to £2.50/kg — this market is in continual decline, he adds.