Flooding and rising soil salinity could make some crops less viable on vulnerable farmland across Greater Lincolnshire
Saltwater flooding could leave farmers on some of Lincolnshire's most productive land with fewer profitable crops to grow, with new modelling pointing to potential economy-wide losses of more than £253 million.
Research led by the University of Lincoln suggests flood-induced salinisation could reshape cropping decisions across Greater Lincolnshire, as salt entering agricultural soils cuts returns and makes some crops considerably less financially resilient than others.
Potatoes appear particularly vulnerable because of their high production costs, meaning falling yields can rapidly erode margins, while beet and oilseed crops also face substantial pressure.
Winter wheat, by contrast, was found to hold up comparatively better as conditions deteriorate, potentially making it a more dependable option for farmers facing increasing salinity.
The research examined winter and spring wheat, winter and spring barley, beet, oilseed and potatoes, combining information on crop distribution, land quality and flood exposure with economic modelling.
Its authors said the issue goes beyond the conventional concern that salt simply reduces crop yields.
Instead, increasing salinity could alter the relative profitability and risk attached to different crops, potentially narrowing the rotations available to businesses farming affected land.
The researchers found that rising soil salinity could affect not only how much farmers are able to produce, but also which crops remain commercially viable.
Their analysis found that all of the major crops considered became less profitable as salinity increased, although the scale of the effect differed considerably between enterprises.
Potatoes suffered the greatest losses in the crop-level analysis, largely because they are expensive to produce and therefore particularly exposed when yields decline.
Cereals were generally more resilient, although they were not immune from the effects of rising salt levels. Winter wheat consistently performed better than the other crops as conditions worsened.
The potential consequences also extend beyond individual farm businesses.
An underlying University of Lincoln economic analysis estimates economy-wide losses of more than £253m under the salinisation scenarios examined across the seven crops.
Winter wheat accounted for around £124m of that total, reflecting the scale of its production, while the research also identified possible knock-on effects for businesses elsewhere in the agricultural supply chain, including wholesale trade and fertiliser sectors.
The authors stress that the work is based on economic modelling rather than a forecast that these losses will inevitably occur.
Their results also indicate that land quality and the area devoted to individual crops are important drivers of potential economic losses.
Nevertheless, the findings highlight the vulnerability of Greater Lincolnshire because areas exposed to saline flooding include some of Britain's most productive agricultural land.
The Fens are particularly important to national food production.
Evidence submitted to parliament by University of Lincoln researchers has estimated that the region produces around 33% to 37% of UK vegetables, generates approximately £1.23bn in agricultural value and contains roughly half of the country's Grade 1 agricultural land.
Salinity can also create a longer-lasting problem than the initial flood event.
Salt left in soils after water recedes can continue to affect crop growth and productivity, meaning farmers may face consequences beyond the season in which flooding occurs.
Researchers say that could ultimately force growers in vulnerable areas to reconsider both crop choice and how land is managed.
In the shorter term, adaptation could include greater use of crops and varieties able to tolerate saline conditions.
Barley is relatively salt-tolerant, while some wheat varieties are better able to cope with saline soils than others.
Researchers have also highlighted the longer-term potential of halophytes, plants naturally adapted to salty environments, including crops such as samphire.
However, these remain niche, high-value products rather than direct replacements for mainstream arable and vegetable crops, and expanding their production would require new markets, investment and changes to existing farming systems.
The Lincolnshire work forms part of a wider effort to understand the threat salinity poses to agricultural land in the county.
University researchers have previously worked with Lincolnshire County Council through Project Groundwater to investigate how saltwater enters soils and what that could mean for food production.
The programme has received funding through Defra's £200m Flood and Coastal Innovation Programmes, managed by the Environment Agency.
The latest economic analysis suggests the challenge is therefore not simply whether crops can survive increasingly saline conditions, but whether farmers can continue to grow them profitably.
Researchers say measures including improved drainage and greater use of salt-tolerant crops and varieties could form part of efforts to reduce the risks while protecting the long-term resilience of one of the country's most important food-producing regions.