Argentina-Beef Projections for 2009.
ARGENTINA.
BEEF EXPORT FORECAST 2009.
Beef exports are forecast to rise 2% during 2009, as gains by Argentina, Brazil and the United States, outweigh downturns in Australia and NZ shipments. As the worlds leading meat trader, Brazilian meat exports are expected to reach over 2 million tons for 2009.
The volume was back in 2008, caused by problems with the European Union and sanitary conditions.
These barriers will be overcome, Brazil is now poised to regain its place at the table with Chile and the EU-27 countries.
In Argentina exports are forecast to increase 20%, to 480,000 tons in 2009 after the shortfall in 2008, caused by the farmers strike and government restrictions. The rebound stems from the government allocating a higher quota for 2009, plus the fact that there are good supplies of cattle on La Pampa.
The United States, continues to re-bound from trade restrictions, caused by BSE (Bovine Spongifoem Encephalopathy). While currently neatly half of shipments are going to Canada and Mexico, opportunities are expanding in the Asian market which has forecasts increased by 10%.
An agreement was reached with South Korea in April 2008, to fully re-open the beef market there, with very stringent controls and specifications. These are consistent, with the guidelines from the World Organization for Animal Health.
There is still considerable buyer resistance in Korea, to buy American beef, this has not beef helped by 10 violations in the health rules by US exporters since April, causing two meat plants to be banned by Japan, coupled with the enormous beef re-calls in the United States internal market..
Today this type of bad news in on the internet immediately.
Australian production, is forecast to fall around 3%, New Zealand production around 4%.
With the American beef going back into Japan and South Korea, competition is going to be rife for these lucrative markets.
The unknown quantity, is where the Aussie and Kiwi dollar will settle, in relation to the greenback
