British farms face 'unviable' future as climate extremes intensify

British farms could become unviable in the worst years of climate disruption unless urgent action is taken to protect food production from heat, flooding and drought, the government’s climate advisers have warned.

The Climate Change Committee said extreme weather is already hitting yields, incomes and long-term business confidence across UK agriculture.

Its new report, A Well-Adapted UK, calls for more support for on-farm water storage, soil resilience, crop diversification and climate-proofed food supply chains.

The CCC said difficult weather conditions are increasingly happening in consecutive seasons and with unprecedented severity.

It warned that without adaptation, some farms could become unviable in the worst years.

Yields in the UK were more than 10% lower than the 10-year average for crops such as wheat and oats following the hot and dry spring and summer in 2025.

By 2050, under 2C of global warming, the amount of high-quality farmland in England and Wales could fall from an average of around 40% between 1961 and 1990 to just over 10%.

The committee said farming will need to change both what it produces and how it produces it in order to survive bad years and thrive in good ones.

It proposed that domestic food production should be sustainably maintained at at least 60% of food consumed from now through to 2050.

Farmers will need practical support to invest in water storage, soil health, drainage, crop changes and new technology, the report said.

The CCC also called for barriers to farm adaptation to be removed, including measures to make it easier for producers to store water on farms.

Public farming subsidies should be used to support long-term food production while encouraging businesses to adapt to future climate conditions, it added.

Baroness Brown, chair of the Adaptation Committee, said: “Our lives, our landscapes and our homes are under increasing pressure from the changing climate. But we are not powerless.”

She said being prepared for climate change was central to protecting the UK’s food, energy and economic security.

“This report carries a message of hope,” she said.

“The solutions already exist, and proven technologies are available now to help the UK adapt effectively. With the right decisions and actions, we can protect the people and the places we love.”

The NFU said the report confirmed what many farmers were already experiencing on the ground: more volatile weather, weaker yields and rising pressure on farm businesses.

The union welcomed the CCC’s recognition of the impact of extreme weather on British farmers and growers.

It said many producers are already taking steps to improve resilience, including installing solar panels and switching crop varieties and soil types.

But it warned that farming cannot tackle the challenge alone, and that progress depends on support from government and the wider supply chain.

NFU Deputy President Paul Tompkins said: “The report is clear that farming has become increasingly challenging in the UK - changing weather patterns are already hitting yields, farm incomes and long-term business confidence.”

He said these pressures were being worsened by geopolitical uncertainty, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East contributing to higher fuel, fertiliser and energy costs.

“We welcome the CCC's recognition of how extreme weather impacts farming and agree that we can still grow domestic food production, but only if government helps farming adapt now,” he said.

Mr Tompkins said that meant backing on-farm water storage, dynamic water abstraction, soil resilience, lower disease prevalence and removing barriers to growth.

“This report emphasises our long-term ask that government must continue to work hand-in-hand with farmers to target investment in adaption as well as food production and the environment so our members can continue to produce food in a changing climate,” he added.

The CCC said water will be one of the most critical issues for the sector.

Farmers are expected to face increasing pressure from both drought and flooding, creating challenges for irrigation, livestock, field access and crop establishment.

The report said resilient soil and water management practices will be needed across all farm types.

It also said more space will be needed for nature on farmed land to help ecosystems cope with future climate conditions.

Some farms may eventually need to change production altogether.

The committee said warmer weather could create opportunities for new crops, with oranges or chickpeas becoming viable in southern parts of the UK as average temperatures rise.

But it warned that farmers will need new skills, training and access to finance to manage that transition.

The wider report also calls for action on overheated homes and workplaces, flood defences, water shortages, insurance and infrastructure, but its agricultural warnings are among the most significant for the food sector.

The CCC said the cost of failing to adapt would far outweigh the cost of acting now.

Its proposals would require investment of around £11 billion a year, split broadly between public and private funding.

Without adaptation, the welfare cost of climate change could rise to between 1% and 5% of UK GDP by 2050 under a 2C warming scenario.

That would be equivalent to between £60 billion and £260 billion a year.

Food security was also identified as a major risk.

Around 40% of the food eaten in the UK is imported, meaning climate impacts overseas could affect British food prices as much as domestic weather.

By 2050, the CCC warned that simultaneous crop failures in major producer regions, or disruption to supply chains, could drive up food prices and increase inflation volatility.

Lower-income households would be hit hardest.

The committee also warned that climate change could increase the risk of shortages across entire nutritionally important food groups for sustained periods.

It said large food companies, including supermarkets, should be required to report on climate risks.

The CCC called for the Adaptation Reporting Power to be made mandatory and extended across the food system.

It also said the government should stress-test critical food supply chains and consider the potential for large-scale national food stockpiling.

Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network, said: “Farmers are on the front line of climate change and struggling to cope with volatile weather conditions.”

He said recent drought-filled summers and wet winters had pushed the current farming model “to the brink”, with alarming impacts on yields.

“The Climate Change Committee's recognition that radical action is required to protect food security and insulate shoppers from rocketing prices and gaps on supermarket shelves is welcome,” he said.

Mr Lines called for an “ambitious transformation of agriculture” focused on nature-friendly farming.

He said the UK should produce as much food domestically as possible and reduce reliance on imports from countries that may be even more exposed to climate change.

“Reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and chemical inputs, and working with nature instead, is the route to sustainable harvests and viable farm businesses for the future,” he said.

The Soil Association also urged ministers to back agroecology, including organic farming and agroforestry.

Gareth Morgan, the organisation’s head of farming policy, said: “This report serves as a stark and frightening reality check for government on how climate change will risk our food security and national security.”

He said the UK food system was “dangerously vulnerable” to shocks such as war and climate change.

Mr Morgan warned that the question of where the UK’s food will come from in future remained unresolved.

“In an increasingly flooded and drought stressed world, it is dangerous for us to continue with our current reliance on imports, especially for fruit and veg,” he said.

The Soil Association called for the government to double production and consumption of British fruit and vegetables.

It also urged ministers to support more beans, peas and pulses, which can provide nitrogen for crops without artificial fertiliser.

Mr Morgan said this should be done through nature-friendly methods such as organic farming, which prioritise healthy soils that are more resilient to flooding and drought.

Baroness Brown said the public wanted action and that ministers now had an opportunity to respond.

“The public want to see change and the government now has an opportunity to step up and protect our way of life,” she said.

Mr Lines said the stakes were now far wider than individual farm businesses.

“The government needs to realise now that food security is national security,” he said.