Lower potato yields are tightening processing supplies and pushing prices higher across Britain and Europe
More than 3.5 million tonnes could be wiped from potato production across Great Britain and four major European growers after drought and extreme heat slashed yields, according to new analysis of industry forecasts.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates that around 3.1 million tonnes of production could be lost in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands because of the summer weather.
Adding the expected impact on Great Britain takes the weather-related shortfall to more than 3.5 million tonnes.
British potato growers alone could face losses valued at between ÂŁ80 million and ÂŁ169 million.
Across all five countries, ECIU estimates the missing production could be worth between €498 million and €818 million, with losses in the four Eurozone producers put at €405 million to €622 million.
The estimates compare expected production with five-year averages and draw on grower test digs, national statistics and industry forecasts.
Belgium is facing the sharpest estimated yield decline at 21%, followed by France at 13%, Germany at 10% and the Netherlands at 7%.
Equivalent official figures are no longer available for Great Britain after the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board stopped publishing potato harvest and yield estimates in 2021.
World Potato Markets instead estimates British yields could be similar to those recorded during the drought of 2018, putting them around 11% below the 2021-2025 average.
Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said: “As we move into autumn the impact of the record-breaking summer heat and drought on food and farming becomes clear.”
He added: “As one of Europe’s thirstiest crops, it was inevitable that the potato harvest would be hit hard, and we are starting to see that now in industry yield estimates, down 20 per cent in some cases.”
Crop size and quality have also been affected, particularly in Belgium, the world’s largest exporter of frozen fries.
Fontane, the country’s main frying variety, was yielding around 32 tonnes per hectare at the end of August, 30% below last year.
Only half of the crop was reported to be above the 50mm size typically sought by processors.
Recent rainfall may have improved conditions slightly, but the source suggests it is likely to have arrived too late to reverse much of the damage already caused.
Cedric Porter, editor of World Potato Markets, said: “Weather conditions are becoming more extreme and challenging. There have been four droughts since 2018, along with large volumes of rain during winters and springtime.”
He said greater investment in water management would be important for the crop’s future, including storing water during wetter periods and increasing irrigation capacity during dry summers.
The estimated 3.5 million-tonne weather-related loss comes on top of a separate reduction caused by growers planting fewer potatoes this year.
ECIU estimates the smaller planted area alone would have reduced production by a further 3.6 million tonnes even if yields had matched the five-year average.
The reduction in area followed last year’s European potato glut and the low prices subsequently received by growers.
Taken together, the smaller planted area and weather-hit yields could result in one of the smallest potato harvests on record in the European Union.
Tighter supplies are already feeding through into processing markets.
Belgian free-market potatoes have risen from zero in April to €200 a tonne or more, while German processing potatoes are making around €240 a tonne after reaching a seasonal low of €15 in June.
British processors are reportedly paying more than ÂŁ300 a tonne to secure supplies, compared with around ÂŁ180 in February.
Lancaster said: “For potato growers on the front line of climate change, the chips are well and truly down.”
ECIU cited research from World Weather Attribution which found that this summer’s heatwave temperatures would have been “virtually impossible” 50 years ago.
The analysis relates specifically to the extreme heat rather than directly attributing the entire potato production shortfall to climate change.
For individual growers, the losses can be substantial.
Jean-Paul Dallene, a potato farmer in Pas-de-Calais, said: “Last year, I was left with a surplus of potatoes that I had to sell at a loss.”
He said this year’s drought had reduced his yield by 12 tonnes per hectare, contributing to a €4,300-per-hectare loss of income when combined with lower contract prices.
Dallene added: “I have adapted my farming practices to incorporate no-till to minimise the impact of the water shortage. But I certainly wasn’t expecting such a severe drought, nor such extreme temperatures.”
The combination of lower yields, reduced crop quality and a smaller planted area is now tightening supplies across the processing sector.
For growers, the season is also underlining the growing importance of irrigation and water-storage investment as increasingly variable weather adds another layer of risk to potato production.