Catchment modelling, riskier than modelling UK economy

A participatory approach to integrated catchment management (ICM) through which experts can collaboratively develop an integrated model to support important catchment management decisions under conditions of extreme technical complexity has been developed. However it is undermined by fundamental institutional challenges, deeming it more ambitious and risky than modelling the UK economy, according to a paper recently published in the Water and Environment Journal.

The ’Macro-Ecological-Model’ (MEM) proposes to meet the Water Framework Directive’s call to manage water and land as an integrated whole in the form of ICM. Prime users would comprise policy makers and various interest groups. Recently tested by the Environment Agency, and Sheffield University, the final model was designed to be simple enough to be used by non-experts within decision making, and to specifically communicate the uncertainties associated with predictions.

Overriding the technical challenges are the institutional challenges. The large number of stakeholders involved will have competing perspectives on issues and their solutions. The ambition and riskiness of the project means that some people will not be willing to commit to ICM and participatory working. Overcoming such challenges offers opportunity to achieve genuine improvements in the social, economic and environmental quality of our catchments.

The authors commented:

’Part of the inspiration for the MEM was the Treasury Model of the UK economy. This predicts the response of a complex system (the economy) to management options available to a group of decision makers (essentially the Treasury and the Bank of England), at a resolution suitable for taking policy decisions. The analogy with MEM should be clear, although one difference is that ICM involves a much broader group of decision makers who do not necessarily share a common agenda as closely as the financial institutions do.’