A record-breaking Christmas shop has sent clear signals back through the supply chain, with lamb, pork and dairy emerging as festive winners and turkey taking a sharp hit.
Grocery sales reached a new high of £13.8bn over Christmas 2025, as shoppers spent an average of £476 each in supermarkets during the festive month. New figures from AHDB suggest that, despite continued cost pressures, food remained a priority for consumers at Christmas.
Nearly half of shoppers said they planned to cut back on overall festive spending, but food was still seen as a “protected spend”, alongside children’s gifts and Christmas trees. Total grocery volumes rose by 1.1% in the four weeks to 28 December 2025, underlining the resilience of seasonal food demand.
For livestock producers, the data points to a solid festive performance for red meat. Volumes across meat, fish and poultry increased overall, with festive red meat cuts outperforming the wider grocery market.
Turkey was the clear casualty of Christmas 2025. Demand for whole birds and primary cuts declined sharply, with primary turkey volumes down 12.0% year on year.
The continued move away from whole birds suggests this may reflect a longer-term shift in Christmas buying habits, adding pressure to an already challenging market for producers.
Lamb, by contrast, delivered a notable turnaround after a subdued year. In the two peak Christmas shopping weeks to 28 December, leg roasting joints drove a 24.7% increase in lamb volumes purchased.
AHDB said targeted promotions were particularly effective, with shoppers responding to value-led deals and the appeal of a traditional festive centrepiece, offering some reassurance for producers.
Beef roasting joints also saw stronger demand, with volumes up 8.6% over the same period. Pork shoulder roasting joints recorded the biggest uplift, with volumes purchased rising by 43.7%, highlighting growing consumer interest in slower-cook and value cuts during the festive period.
Dairy producers also benefited from a strong Christmas finish. There were an additional 504,000 cheese-buying occasions in the run-up to Christmas, with cows’ cheese volumes increasing by 4.4% year on year.
Growth was led by Cheddar, alongside Stilton, British blue and snacking cheeses, reinforcing the importance of cheeseboards in Christmas celebrations.
Cream and butter remained key seasonal staples. Volumes of cows’ cream increased by 1.6%, reflecting its role in festive desserts, while cows’ butter volumes rose by 3.4%. Block butter performed particularly well, with volumes up 6.9%, likely driven by festive baking and use on cheeseboards.
Charlotte Forkes-Rees, AHDB’s Retail & Consumer Insight Analyst, said the figures highlight changing Christmas habits with implications for producers.
“It’s clear that Brits are not yet bored of the cheeseboard, but the red meat performance this season suggests that consumers are changing up their Christmas centrepieces, and we expect more people to explore alternatives to turkey in 2026.”
She added that Christmas remains a key opportunity for British produce. “In December 2025, premium own-label products were present in 92% of shoppers’ baskets, highlighting that at Christmas, shoppers are willing to splurge on a treat,” she said, stressing the importance of emphasising indulgence and added value.
For producers, the Christmas period continues to provide some of the clearest indicators of shifting consumer demand, with festive performance likely to influence production and marketing decisions heading into 2026.
