England swings from drought to flooding as farmers face 'weather whiplash'

England has swung from drought to flooding in just a matter of months, raising fresh concerns for farmers as water conditions become increasingly unpredictable.

After four months of above-average rainfall, all regions have now returned to normal water status, with East Anglia the last to recover, the National Drought Group confirmed on Monday (23 March).

The rapid turnaround has restored reservoirs, rivers and groundwater, but also brought widespread flooding — highlighting growing “weather whiplash” driven by climate change.

For farmers, the shift underlines ongoing uncertainty around water availability, particularly as the sector heads into the spring growing season.

Officials warn that these sharp swings between extremes are likely to become more frequent, leaving agriculture exposed to both water shortages and excess rainfall within the same year.

Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the Environment Agency and chair of the National Drought Group, said last year’s dry conditions had taken a significant toll.

“Last year’s drought was challenging for everyone, affecting our farmers, our wildlife, and our public water supplies,” she said.

While winter rainfall has replenished supplies, she cautioned against complacency.

“The winter rainfall has helped our depleted reservoirs and rivers to recover and, while we welcome the improved picture, we are mindful of the problems that flooding brings too.

“We enter spring in a favourable position, but we can never be complacent,” she said, adding that water companies must continue fixing leaks and be ready to act if conditions deteriorate.

Despite the recovery, the risk of a “flash drought” remains, with experts warning that a sudden combination of low rainfall and high temperatures — similar to 2022 — could quickly reverse conditions.

Water companies are now finalising statutory drought plans, outlining how supplies and the environment will be protected during prolonged dry periods.

The government has also urged firms to strengthen contingency measures for severe drought — a level not seen in England since 1976 — with potential actions including daily water limits, reduced pressure and restrictions for businesses.

Water Minister Emma Hardy said preparation must remain a priority despite recent rainfall.

“Despite our recent wet weather, we must still talk about drought. Our climate is changing, droughts are becoming increasingly common, and we need to be prepared,” she said.

She added that companies are expected to update their plans by the end of March and plan for more extreme conditions “in the hope it never comes”.

The latest data highlights how sharply conditions have shifted. February rainfall reached 170% of the long-term average, pushing reservoir storage to around 95%, slightly above normal for this time of year.

Soils are now fully replenished, while groundwater and river flows are at normal or above-average levels across England — improving prospects for irrigation and early-season crop establishment.

However, the picture remains uneven. The south-west recorded one of its wettest winters since records began in 1871, triggering significant flooding.

In contrast, East Anglia has been slower to recover from last year’s drought, delaying some farmers in refilling on-farm reservoirs ahead of the irrigation season.

Looking ahead, drier conditions are expected to dominate in the short term. The Met Office forecasts below-average rainfall for the remainder of March, with temperatures near or slightly above average.

Sarah Davies, Head of Environment and Energy at the Met Office, said: “High pressure is expected to dominate across the UK through to the end of March, keeping conditions mostly fine and dry with limited rainfall, and temperatures near or slightly above average.”

She added there are “early signs the weather could become more changeable” into April, though there is no clear indication of significantly wetter conditions.

The developments come as the government advances a £10.5 billion flood defence programme and wider resilience efforts, as the UK approaches the 50th anniversary of the 1976 drought — a reminder for farmers of how quickly conditions can shift, and the importance of planning for both extremes.