European egg shortage looming
The ban on conventional cages will lead to a shortage of eggs in Europe. That is the view of Prof Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst, a statistical analyst with the International Egg Commission, who issued his warning during a presentation to delegates at the IEC’s London Conference.
Prof Windhorst has been examining the changing patterns of egg production and trade around the world. His findings, which cover the period from 1990 to 2007, have been published in a report for the IEC. That report was presented to the IEC conference at the end of March and it shows that egg production in Europe fell from 10.2 million tonnes in 1992 to 9.9 million tonnes in 2007. Prof Windhorst believes figures will get worse as a result of the EU’s decision to ban conventional cages.
"Europe will go from being an egg surplus region to an egg deficit region. The question is, who will supply us?" said Prof Windhorst, who said that if eggs had to be imported from eastern European countries outside the EU or from other parts of the world, the decision to ban conventional cages in the EU would have done nothing to benefit animal welfare – the reason the EU had decided to implement the ban.
The figures produced by Prof Windhorst showed Europe still in surplus in 2007, although the surplus was just 33,477 tonnes. Production figures would be hit this year with the ban on conventional cages taking effect in Germany and Austria, he said. Germany had already lost millions of layers. Production would be affected still further with the introduction of the ban to the rest of the EU in 2012. "Then the EU will no longer be an egg surplus region, but will have to import considerable amounts of eggs to meet the demand in the member countries with high deficits," says the report.
Countries showing a deficit in 2006 included the United Kingdom. Its deficit was 75,672 tonnes. In France it was 57,967 tonnes. Germany’s was the highest deficit – standing at 214,238 tonnes. Germany was already importing 5.7 billion shell eggs, says the report, and it would need to import up to seven billion more eggs as a result of the 2009 cage ban. "It will not be possible to install either Kleingruppenhaltungen (colony nests) or barn respectively free range systems within the next year for about 25 million layers. For this transformation process 612 million Euros will have to be invested," says the report. "Apart from the problem in getting this money from the banks, it will not be easy to obtain building permits for large units. It is still an open question where the additional eggs could come from."
The biggest fall in European production between 1992 and 2007 was seen in Western Europe, where the total was down by 7.9 per cent. "This development is a result of avian influenza outbreaks in several countries, which at least for some time led to a lower per capita consumption, as well as the beginning of the adaptation process for the banning of conventional cages," says the report.
In the United Kingdom, production fell from 627,000 tonnes in 1992 to 590,000 tonnes in 2007. The only EU country to retain a place in the world’s top ten producers was Spain. With production of 884,000 tonnes, it ranked ninth in the world.
World egg production is now dominated by China, which accounts for 41 per cent of global egg production. Its nearest rivals are the USA, with a comparatively low 8.5 per cent share, and then India, with four per cent. Russia accounts for 3.3 per cent and Spain just 1.4 per cent.
The bulk of the growth in production during the period studied by Prof Windhorst had come from Asia, where egg production increased by as much as 177 per cent between 1990 and 2007 to 38 million tonnes. In the Americas the increase was 49.6 per cent – up to 11.9 million tonnes, and in Africa it was 46.2 per cent, although total production in the region was still relatively low at 2.2 million tonnes. Oceania contributes just 0.4 per cent of world egg production. Production fell by 4.6 per cent between 1990 and 2007, largely as a result of reductions in Australia.
Prof Windhorst told the conference the egg market in both the European Union and the United States could be affected by animal welfare issues over the next decade. Producers in the European Union are not the only ones facing legislation to outlaw conventional cages. In the United States, the state of California has already voted to implement a cage ban there and animal rights campaigners are pressing for similar bans in other states. Gene Gregory, of United Egg Producers in the United States, told conference delegates about developments in the United States, where voters in California voted for a cage ban in November last year – against the advice of the Governor, said Gene Gregory. The ban will come into force on January 1 2015.
Gene said the economy of California would lose $615 million as a result of the ban, there would be major shortages of locally produced eggs, higher prices and producers would be forced out of business because they would not be able to compete with producers from out of state.
"Consumers in California will still buy cheaper eggs. Even since the vote, 95 per cent of sales are cage eggs.
Consumers will continue to buy cage eggs. They will just come from other states or from outside the United States," said Gene, who said that free range producers also stood to lose as a result of moves to ban cage systems. "When free range becomes the norm it becomes a commodity."
Gene said the implications were far worse if animal rights campaigners succeeded in having bans implemented elsewhere or were successful in pressing for a nationwide ban. "If the ban went national we would need 15 million more hens to produce the same number of eggs. Because of poorer feed conversion, we would need an extra 700,000 acres of corn and soy beans," said Gene. He said that farmers’ current assets would have no value, there would be a cost of $6 billion to convert to new systems and US farmers would also face competition from cheaper eggs from other countries. "Will consumers still eat eggs produced in cages? Of course they will. They will just come from somewhere else."
Gene said it was not even clear what requirements would be placed on egg producers by the Californian cage ban. He said that if the wording put forward by animal rights campaigners was taken at face value, hens with an average wingspan of 28 inches would have to be allowed five feet of space to turn around without touching each other. Producers were already looking to move out of the state, he said.
Gene Gregory launched a scathing attack on the motives of the animal rights activists who campaigned for the ban.
"This is not about animal welfare. This is about social change and animals are just a vehicle by which they will get there." He accused the campaigners of market intimidation and said they had "decided they can lawsuit us out of business in the United States." He said, "In the long term, they want to eliminate all animal agriculture and create a vegetarian society."
