Trade expert John Alistair Clarke has warned that global instability could drive up feed and energy costs for farmers
Britain's poultry producers must prepare for sudden geopolitical shocks that could drive up feed, fertiliser and energy costs, disrupt supply chains and threaten food security, a leading international trade expert has warned.
John Alistair Clarke, a former senior European Commission trade negotiator who helped negotiate around 60 international agreements, said global instability was becoming an increasingly serious threat to agricultural businesses.
Speaking at the Egg and Poultry Industry Conference (EPIC) on Monday (2 November), he urged producers to look beyond traditional market pressures when planning for the future.
Clarke warned that businesses must account for "potential geopolitical shocks that can come from nowhere", with the potential to disrupt food supplies, shipping routes and international trade.
He described geopolitics as "the new kid on the block", arguing that international tensions were increasingly shaping agricultural markets and poultry production.
The Covid-19 pandemic provided an early warning of how quickly global supply chains could unravel, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine subsequently triggered sharp increases in grain and energy prices.
Disruption to Ukrainian wheat exports created shortages across parts of the Middle East, Africa and Asia, forcing international supply chains to adapt.
Clarke said the diversion of Ukrainian agricultural products into European markets had also sparked protectionist responses from EU countries concerned about competition.
Meanwhile, tariffs introduced by the Trump administration have added "a lot of unpredictability and uncertainty" to global markets, including agriculture.
Retaliatory measures by major trading nations have further disrupted established supply routes, with Brazil benefiting from increased Chinese demand for soya previously sourced from the United States.
Clarke also warned that conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere were placing renewed pressure on energy, fuel and fertiliser markets, with consequences for livestock producers dependent on imported inputs.
"That loss of availability of grain, of energy, has a lot of knock-on effects through your sector," he told delegates.
Turning to Europe, Clarke criticised what he regarded as a lack of urgency among policymakers over agricultural resilience.
Despite the EU's position as a major agricultural exporter, he argued that food production was not being treated as strategically important in the same way as semiconductors, robotics and other industries.
"So Europe is, I would say, rather complacent about its food security," he said.
He predicted that negotiations over the EU's next seven-year Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could result in a real-terms reduction of between 10% and 20% in farm support.
Greater control over spending would also be handed to individual member states, potentially allowing funding to shift away from agriculture towards defence and other national priorities.
Clarke warned that reduced support and weaker investment in resilience could accelerate farm consolidation, leaving fewer but larger agricultural businesses across Europe.
He also raised concerns about growing protectionism through EU environmental and sustainability requirements imposed on imported agricultural products.
The EU's deforestation regulation, due to apply to most operators from 30 December 2026, could provoke retaliation from major agricultural exporters, he suggested.
Restrictions on pesticide residues in imported produce could also create difficulties for European livestock businesses reliant on soya and maize supplies.
Clarke questioned the EU's ambition to reduce imports of critical agricultural commodities, warning that efforts to strengthen domestic production could unintentionally restrict international trade.
Trade agreements were another potential challenge, particularly for poultry producers facing competition from countries with lower production costs.
He predicted further political difficulties for the EU-Mercosur agreement, which remains subject to a delayed ratification process, and highlighted ongoing free trade negotiations with Thailand.
With the UK potentially considering its own agreements with those trading partners, Clarke urged caution over the implications for domestic poultry production.
"Think very carefully before you do that. About what that means for the poultry sector," he warned.
Ukraine's growing integration into European agricultural markets could also reshape competition over the coming decade, with its producers enjoying significant advantages in several sectors.
Closer UK-EU cooperation could nevertheless offer opportunities for British agriculture.
Clarke pointed to the UK-EU summit scheduled for 20 November, anticipating progress on a sanitary and phytosanitary agreement aimed at reducing trade barriers for food and agricultural products.
He also highlighted efforts to link UK and EU emissions trading systems, which he believed could help ease energy-related pressures.
However, international trade was not the only challenge facing poultry producers.
Clarke predicted continued public opposition to large-scale poultry developments because of environmental impacts, animal disease risks and concerns over animal welfare.
He referred to allegations of pollution linked to poultry production in the River Wye and River Usk catchments, arguing that producers needed to demonstrate greater transparency.
"Open your doors to the public. Show what you are doing, why youā€™re doing it, that you have the very highest standards of health and safety and animal welfare," he urged.
He also cautioned against the poultry industry taking an overly confrontational approach towards vegetarianism, veganism and alternative proteins.
Clarke argued that plant-based products and laboratory-produced meat represented growing competition that traditional producers should not simply dismiss.
"They are fighting, in my view, a losing battle against those alternative food protein sources," he said of the European poultry sector's response.
Animal welfare standards would also become increasingly important, with further EU regulatory changes expected to address practices including male chick culling and the treatment of laying hens.
He urged British and European producers to remain ahead of legislation and demonstrate high standards to consumers.
Despite the challenges, Clarke maintained that poultry production had "a good, bright future", supported by population growth, urbanisation and rising incomes, particularly across Africa and Asia.
He said the sector also benefited from fewer religious restrictions than beef or pork, leaving poultry well placed to meet growing global demand.
However, his central message was that producers must now treat geopolitical instability as a major business risk, alongside feed costs, changing consumer expectations and animal welfare requirements.