Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index falls 4.6% in latest event

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index, which occurs fortnightly, covers key global milk commodity markets
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index, which occurs fortnightly, covers key global milk commodity markets

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index fell 4.6% to US$3,723 at the latest event on 18 October, in a return to the dominant trend of the past seven months.

This follows a 3.5 percent decline at the 4 October event, but it is in contrast to the two consecutive increases seen in September.

Since 15 March 2022, 12 out of the 15 GDT events have had a decline in the overall price index.

Analysing the latest event, Katherine Jack, AHDB Dairy senior analyst, said the decline in prices was mainly driven by reduced demand.

Although the platform trades products to and from multiple countries, she said the biggest driver was product going from Oceania to China, particularly whole milk powder (WMP).

"Chinese imports have been notably down this year, from a combination of reduced demand due to a strict covid restrictions, and improvements in domestic supply and self-sufficiency," she explained.

Additionally, reports suggest that South-East Asian buyers bought less than expected in October, as they are already well stocked for Q4 and can afford to wait for further price drops.

Ms Jack added: "So far, we have not yet seen the same trend in Europe, with both EU and UK wholesale prices remaining at high levels in recent months, avoiding any large declines.

"They have been relatively protected by being less reliant on China as a destination and having a larger domestic market to serve compared to Oceania."

While product supplies remain in balance with, or lower than demand, prices would continue to be supported, she said.

"However, exports are still important to the EU market, and the current high prices relative to other regions will serve to lower this demand, potentially countering the supply side tightness and putting prices under pressure."