NFU raises alarm over fertiliser and diesel costs amid Middle East conflict

The NFU has warned that rising tensions in the Middle East could increase fertiliser and diesel costs for UK farmers, raising concerns about food price inflation.

The union said disruption to global oil and gas markets could push up the price of key agricultural inputs at a critical time as farmers prepare for the spring planting season.

Demand for fertiliser and fuel is expected to rise in the coming weeks as growers begin fieldwork and fertiliser applications for the new cropping season.

Some farmers reported red diesel prices briefly rising above 100p per litre late last week, with significant variation in prices across different regions.

Although Iranian oil exports account for around 4.5% of global supply, the main concern for energy markets is disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. Around 20% of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass through the key shipping route.

The region is also vital for liquefied natural gas supplies, with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates producing roughly a fifth of global LNG exports, much of which travels through the same corridor to Europe and Asia.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw said the conflict was already influencing the cost of agricultural inputs in the UK.

“We’ve already seen how disruption to global oil and gas markets has influenced the price of fuel and fertiliser here in the UK, which are key inputs used for spring planting, growing crops and forage production,” he said.

He warned that continued volatility could place further pressure on the food supply chain.

“Continued supply of these is essential for resilient domestic food production,” Mr Bradshaw said.

“This is reflective of cost pressures across the whole food supply chain which, if it persists, could lead to further food price inflation and is something the government needs to take very seriously.”

The NFU said the situation remains fluid and could change rapidly depending on developments in the coming days.

The organisation is gathering evidence from members and working with industry groups, agricultural suppliers and Defra to ensure the latest intelligence is reaching government decision-makers.

Recent reports from farmers suggest the volatility has also highlighted long-standing concerns around price transparency in agricultural supply chains.

Farmers often only learn the price of fertiliser or fuel once products have been delivered to the farm, making it difficult to plan purchases or manage costs.

The NFU said this lack of transparency erodes trust and limits farmers’ ability to make informed decisions.

Public data on fertiliser prices in the UK is limited, with figures from levy organisation AHDB updated only once a month.

Red diesel prices are even less transparent, with no recognised national index and many farmers only receiving the final price at delivery.

While many arable farmers will already have fertiliser supplies in place for early spring applications, uncertainty remains for later-season purchases.

Livestock farmers may be particularly exposed, as fertiliser is often bought closer to the time of use due to cashflow pressures and limited storage capacity.

The NFU also highlighted the pressure on farm finances following the removal of direct support payments in England, which previously helped businesses manage risks outside their control.

Mr Bradshaw said the situation underlines the importance of strengthening domestic farming resilience.

“This conflict underlines why it’s so important that we build resilient farming and growing businesses in the UK – businesses that can continue to produce food for the 70 million consumers of the UK and withstand shocks from global volatility,” he said.

The union said it will continue monitoring markets closely as farmers head into one of the most input-intensive periods of the farming calendar.