Growers are facing pressure from weaker commodity prices, rising costs and disappointing yields
The NFU is calling for emergency financial support for arable farmers after a drought-hit 2026 harvest left wheat, spring barley and oat yields below recent averages.
AHDB’s harvest survey shows average UK winter wheat yields at 6.9 tonnes per hectare, around 11% below the five-year average.
Spring barley yields were 17% below the five-year average, while oats were down 14%.
Results varied sharply between farms and regions, with winter wheat yields ranging from 3.9t/ha to 11.5t/ha.
Stronger results in Scotland and northern England helped lift the UK average, while poorer performance elsewhere reflected differences in growing conditions, soil type and moisture availability.
Winter barley performed better, averaging 6.9t/ha and remaining broadly in line with its five-year average.
Oilseed rape was the standout performer, averaging 4.0t/ha — around 19% above the UK five-year average.
Against that backdrop, the NFU is warning that many growers are facing mounting cash-flow pressure as disappointing yields combine with weaker commodity prices and rising costs.
NFU Combinable Crops Board chair Jamie Burrows said: “The report paints a picture that many of us will be familiar with; a hugely difficult and deeply challenging harvest, with yields in many crops falling short of expectations and significant variations being reported from region to region and farm to farm.”
The union is calling for a government-backed, interest-free loan linked to losses caused by the summer drought and extreme temperatures.
It says the measure would provide working capital for arable businesses preparing to establish next year’s crops.
“As farmers begin planning for next season, urgent action is needed,” Burrows said.
“We are calling for a government-backed, interest-free loan, linked to the losses caused by this summer’s drought and extreme temperatures, which would give arable farming businesses the working capital to produce next year’s food.”
Burrows said weaker commodity prices and rising costs were adding further strain to already difficult trading conditions.
“Weaker commodity prices and rising costs, exacerbated by the Middle East conflict, mean profitability remains under severe strain for growers, leaving many facing an immediate cash flow crisis,” he said.
The NFU is also calling for longer-term investment in crop varieties capable of delivering more consistent yields under drought, disease and increasingly volatile weather.
“The focus must be on creating the conditions to build sustainable and profitable businesses,” Burrows said.
“With the UK facing more extreme weather, we need long-term investment in resilient crop varieties that are more able to withstand drought and disease and have greater yield consistency.”
He said that kind of investment could help strengthen domestic food security and improve the resilience of arable businesses.
Separate analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimated combined 2026 production of wheat, winter and spring barley, oats and oilseed rape at 19.4 million tonnes.
ECIU said this would be between 2 million and 2.6 million tonnes below earlier forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture and European cereals association COCERAL.
At current ex-farm prices, it estimated the value of that production gap at between ÂŁ414 million and ÂŁ546 million.
The figure represents an estimate of the shortfall against earlier forecasts rather than a confirmed total financial loss across the farming sector.
ECIU farming analyst Tom Lancaster described the season as historically poor.
“The hottest summer on record has delivered us the worst harvest on record,” he said.
He added: “Four of the five worst harvests on record have now occurred this decade following extreme weather, with costs and lost revenue racking up for Britain’s farmers.”
Lancaster said further adaptation would be needed to help farming businesses cope with increasingly extreme conditions.
“More can be done to adapt to these extremes, including addressing problems with the sustainable farming schemes that are so important to building resilience,” he said.
He also argued that reducing emissions would be important in limiting longer-term risks to food production.
The latest harvest figures underline the financial pressure facing many arable businesses as they prepare for the 2027 season.
The focus now turns to whether government will respond to the NFU’s call for short-term support, alongside wider demands for investment in more resilient crop varieties.