Rising costs push UK food prices towards 50% surge by 2026

UK food prices are on track to surge 50% by late 2026, piling further pressure on household budgets as energy shocks and climate pressures continue to hit the food system.

New analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) suggests the milestone could be reached by November, marking a sharp acceleration in inflation compared with pre-crisis trends.

The projected rise means food prices will have increased in just over five years at almost four times the pace seen in the previous two decades, as rising energy and fertiliser costs continue to impact food production.

The surge has been driven by a combination of extreme weather, global supply disruption and continued reliance on volatile oil and gas markets, all of which are affecting harvests and supply both in the UK and globally.

Staple foods have already seen steep increases. Pasta prices have risen by 50%, frozen vegetables by 55%, chocolate by 58%, eggs by 59% and beef by 64%, while olive oil has climbed by 113%.

These rises reflect the sensitivity of food production to energy costs, fertiliser prices and climate-related shocks such as droughts, floods and heatwaves.

The analysis found that household food bills rose by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023, with energy shocks accounting for £244 of that increase.

More recently, climate-impacted products — including butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee — have driven much of the ongoing inflation, with prices rising more than four times faster than other food and drink items.

Chris Jaccarini, a food and farming analyst at the ECIU, warned: “Trump’s war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike.”

He added: “Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further… insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russia invaded Ukraine.”

Recent poor harvests in England have also added to supply pressures, further contributing to rising prices across the sector.

The findings suggest households will continue to feel the strain well beyond the initial phase of the cost-of-living crisis, with food remaining one of the most unavoidable expenses.

Adjusted for wages, food prices have risen by 11% since mid-2021, compounding increases in other essential household costs such as energy, water and insurance.

Lower-income households are expected to be hardest hit, as they spend a greater share of their income on food, leaving them particularly vulnerable to food price shocks.

Analysis from the Food Foundation suggests the most deprived households would need to spend up to 45% of their disposable income to afford a healthy diet, rising to 70% for those with children.

Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, said: “Food prices rising this high, and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate.”

She added: “The question for government isn't just how to respond to this crisis - it's whether we're finally going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one.”

The findings are adding to calls for urgent action to improve food system resilience and protect consumers from future shocks.