Scottish cattle supplies tighten despite slight rise in numbers

Scottish cattle supplies remain under pressure despite early signs of stabilisation, with tight availability expected to persist throughout 2026.

New data shows the number of males and beef-sired females aged 12 to 30 months rose by 0.8% year-on-year — the first increase since July 2024 — offering a slight lift after a prolonged period of decline.

However, the improvement is largely linked to reduced slaughter rather than any significant expansion in production.

Quality Meat Scotland’s market intelligence manager Iain Macdonald said: “We are starting to see some marginal improvements in the headline population data, but it’s important to stress that this is coming off a historically tight base.”

He added the market remains “very finely balanced” and that “cattle availability through 2026 will continue to feel restricted”.

Across key age groups, the picture remains mixed. Numbers of cattle aged over 30 months are still down 2.7% on the year, although the pace of decline has eased.

Availability in the important 18 to 24-month category has stabilised, falling by just 0.1% for a second consecutive quarter, while a 3.6% rise in 12 to 18-month cattle could help support supplies later in the year.

Store cattle markets are also finely balanced. Prices have started strongly at Scottish auctions, but supply — particularly of longer keep stores — remains limited.

Cattle numbers under six months fell by 2.8% in January, suggesting tighter volumes for spring sales. While improved calf numbers in England and Wales may ease competition slightly, Scottish availability is expected to remain the key constraint.

Slaughter trends continue to reflect the tight supply base. Under-30-month kills fell sharply in 2025 as producers held back cattle amid firm prices.

Any increase in slaughter this year is expected to be modest, with forecasts suggesting growth will remain below 1%. Reduced heifer slaughter, as farmers look to stabilise breeding herds, is also limiting throughput.

Movements of cattle out of Scotland remained elevated last year but have begun to ease, helping to steady domestic supply. Lower flows to England in the second half of 2025 suggest this trend is unlikely to reverse in the near term.

The breeding herd remains under pressure, although the rate of decline is slowing. Beef-sired females aged over 30 months stood at 395,000 in January, down 1.7% year-on-year — the smallest reduction since October 2022.

Across Great Britain, supply remains tight. Numbers in key slaughter age groups are down 3% for 18 to 24-month cattle and 6% for those aged 24 to 30 months, driven largely by sharper declines in England and Wales.

A stronger calf crop in spring 2025 is expected to support availability later this year, but reduced heifer slaughter and ongoing herd contraction mean supply will remain constrained in the short term.

Overall, the data points to limited improvement rather than recovery, with cattle supplies expected to stay tight through 2026 and any easing likely to be gradual.