Scottish lamb prices remain 25% above five-year average

Scottish lamb prices have fallen nearly 20% from their seasonal peak, but remain almost 25% above the five-year average as export demand continues to support the market.

New-season lambs weighing between 25.5kg and 45.5kg averaged just under £3.80/kg liveweight at Scottish auction marts during the first week of July.

That was 19% below the new-season high, but still around 6.5% above the same point in 2025 and almost 25% higher than the five-year average for early July.

Prices showed a slight rebound at auction sales held on Thursday 9 July.

The market began its usual summer adjustment in mid-June, after remaining firm for around two weeks following the Eid al-Adha festival.

Quality Meat Scotland said prices had remained resilient despite new-season lamb throughput at Scottish marts running comfortably above both last year’s level and the five-year average.

Strong overseas trade has helped absorb the additional supply.

UK lamb export volumes rose by 12% during the first third of 2026, while exporters also secured higher prices.

Imports remained broadly stable despite becoming significantly more expensive.

Production constraints in the Southern Hemisphere, combined with firm global demand, have pushed international lamb prices higher and reduced competitive pressure on domestic producers.

Overall sheepmeat availability has also remained relatively tight because more of the previous season’s hoggs were marketed earlier in the year, leaving fewer to come forward during the summer.

Iain Macdonald, market intelligence manager at QMS, said total UK lamb availability during the first five months of 2026 was estimated to have been broadly similar to 2025.

He said heavier carcase weights had increased production, with much of the additional output absorbed by stronger export demand.

“Given prices have remained historically high under these conditions, we can be confident that demand for Scottish lamb continues to be strong,” Macdonald said.

Further pressure is expected as seasonal supplies increase sharply through July and continue building into August.

Historically, lamb prices fall by more than a third on average between their seasonal peak and autumn low, although the scale of the decline varies considerably between years.

Price falls were unusually limited in 2025, but this year’s market has already retreated by around 20% before the main seasonal rise in lamb numbers.

Growth in supplies is expected to slow as autumn approaches.

Last year’s slower marketing pattern also raises the possibility that relatively high numbers could continue coming forward later into the autumn.

QMS said it was still too early to assess the full size of this year’s lamb crop.

However, a modest increase in the breeding flock suggests overall production could broadly match last year, even if lambing percentages prove slightly less favourable.

Macdonald said the market was entering the second half of the year from a position of considerable strength.

“Seasonal price declines are expected as supplies recover, but this is likely an adjustment from exceptionally high levels rather than the beginning of a sustained downturn,” he said.

He added that supportive export markets, constrained global production and relatively firm domestic demand provided a solid foundation for the months ahead.

Continued demand for Scottish lamb at home and overseas also created an opportunity to increase domestic production and processing, QMS said.

Separate economic modelling by the organisation suggests Scotland’s sheep sector could generate an additional £77 million in output and £21 million in gross value added by 2032.