Fertiliser remains available, but tight logistics could create delays if orders surge closer to spring
Farmers are being urged to plan fertiliser purchases earlier after some nitrate sulphur deliveries stretched to as long as six weeks.
The warning comes in a fertiliser market update published by AHDB on Monday (14 September), which said only 75% of nitrate sulphur orders reported by its sample of merchants and buying groups were currently being fulfilled within 28 days.
The levy body stressed that fertiliser remains available, but warned that limited supply-chain flexibility could create bottlenecks if large volumes are ordered closer to peak spring demand.
The issue comes as fertiliser prices remain elevated, with UK ammonium nitrate at £461 per tonne, imported ammonium nitrate and granular urea both at £466/t, and nitrate sulphur at £472/t.
For growers planning 2027 applications, the concern is increasingly not simply price, but whether product can be delivered when required.
AHDB said many farmers remain cautious about committing to fertiliser purchases too early because of uncertainty around prices, cropping plans, cashflow and weather.
However, the organisation warned that leaving orders until the last minute could create practical problems if demand becomes concentrated into a short period.
Manufacturing, imports, storage and haulage capacity could all become pressure points if large numbers of farmers seek product at the same time.
The Farming Fertiliser Stakeholder Group, which includes AHDB, Defra, farming unions and industry bodies, is therefore encouraging growers to speak to suppliers earlier in the season about likely requirements.
The concern is not necessarily that fertiliser will be unavailable, but that the supply chain may struggle to move sufficient volumes quickly enough when demand peaks.
Prices also remain well above levels seen earlier in the year.
Compared with February, UK ammonium nitrate is around 14.6% more expensive, imported ammonium nitrate is 15.4% higher and nitrate sulphur is up 18.1%.
Granular urea is also above February levels, although the increase is smaller at around 2.4%.
International fertiliser markets remain volatile, with energy costs and geopolitical disruption continuing to influence nitrogen prices and availability.
AHDB said higher gas costs and instability in global trade remain risks for the months ahead, leaving the UK market exposed to further price or supply-chain pressure.
UK natural gas futures also rose sharply in the week to 11 September, adding to concerns about future nitrogen production costs.
AHDB is not advising farmers to purchase all of their fertiliser immediately.
Instead, growers are being encouraged to assess crop nutrient requirements, test soils where appropriate and speak to a range of suppliers so they have a clearer understanding of likely availability and delivery times.
The latest warning comes after months of concern over Britain's exposure to global fertiliser markets and the impact of international disruption on farm input costs.
But for growers looking ahead to spring applications, the immediate issue is becoming increasingly practical.
With nitrate sulphur already taking up to six weeks to arrive in some cases, leaving orders until peak demand could carry a growing delivery risk.