UK cattle and sheep numbers fall again, raising supply concerns

The UK’s breeding cattle and sheep populations continue to shrink, raising fresh concerns over future beef and lamb supplies, according to Defra figures analysed by AHDB.

Data for 1 December 2025 shows the total UK cattle herd edged lower to 9.06 million head, a decline of 1% compared with the previous year. The fall comes amid tightening supply across the sector, which has helped underpin strong cattle prices in recent months.

The breeding herd has also contracted, with female numbers down 1.7% to 3.08 million head. AHDB said the decline is being driven largely by the suckler herd, which fell by 40,000 head — a 3.1% drop year on year.

While this continues a longer-term trend, it marks the slowest rate of contraction since December 2022.

Dairy cow numbers also eased back, falling by 15,000 head, or 1%. AHDB said this is “likely driven by lower dairy prices”, prompting producers to cull less productive animals.

Over the longer term, the divide between sectors remains clear, with the dairy herd broadly stable while the beef herd has been in steady decline over the past decade.

Numbers of cattle aged between one and two years also dropped sharply, down by nearly 32,000 head compared with December 2024. AHDB said this “reflects the tightness in supply” that has supported cattle prices, and points to reduced finished cattle availability in the months ahead.

Younger stock showed more stability. Cattle under one year old totalled 2.83 million head, a marginal fall of 0.2%, with an increase in male calves offsetting a slight reduction in females.

A similar trend is being seen in the sheep sector. The UK flock stood at 20.45 million head, down 2.1% year on year, although Defra noted that Welsh data remains subject to revision.

In England, the decline has been more pronounced. The national flock contracted by 5.5% to 9.42 million head, with reductions seen across both breeding and non-breeding animals.

The female breeding flock fell by 2% to 5.70 million head, while the number of other sheep and lambs dropped by 10.4% to 3.72 million head.

AHDB said this reinforces expectations of a smaller lamb crop, tightening supply further ahead of the coming season.

With breeding numbers continuing to fall, supplies are expected to remain tight into 2026, although spring conditions will be critical in determining final output.