UK food supply at risk as Iran conflict threatens CO2 supplies

Supermarket shortages could hit the UK by summer if disruption from the Iran conflict continues, with ministers quietly preparing for a worst-case scenario that could directly impact farming and food production.

Contingency planning, first revealed by The Times, centres on the risk that continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt supplies of carbon dioxide — a gas critical to agriculture and the wider food chain.

Officials from No 10, the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence have been running emergency simulations, known as Exercise Turnstone, to assess how industry would cope if the crisis drags on.

Scenarios examined include the shipping route remaining shut into June, no lasting peace deal between the US and Iran, and failures at key UK CO2 production sites — a combination that could place significant strain on supply chains.

The implications for farming are considerable. CO2 is essential for the humane slaughter of pigs and poultry, as well as for preserving fresh meat and produce by slowing bacterial growth and extending shelf life.

It is also widely used in food packaging, refrigeration and drinks production, meaning any disruption could quickly affect both farm businesses and supermarket shelves.

The conflict is also pushing up fuel and fertiliser costs, adding to existing financial pressure on UK farm businesses.

Despite the risks, Business Secretary Peter Kyle insisted the public should be “reassured” that preparations are in place, adding that CO2 supplies are “not a concern” for the wider economy.

He described the leak of the planning exercise as “unhelpful”, saying: “The public need to be reassured that we are doing this kind of planning and we are doing this kind of scenario planning.”

The government has already taken steps to shore up supply, announcing a £100 million investment to temporarily reopen the Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside.

Kyle said the move should reassure the public that action is being taken “behind the scenes to keep resilience in our economy” as tensions in the Middle East continue.

A government spokesperson added that officials were “continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East”, stressing that such scenarios are a planning tool and “not a prediction of future events”.

Retailers have sought to downplay immediate risks. Tesco chief executive Ken Murphy said the government was “doing the right thing in planning for a worst-case scenario”, describing its approach as a “reasonable analysis”.

He added that Tesco had “seen nothing at this point” to indicate disruption linked to CO2 shortages, with no suppliers raising concerns so far.

Murphy said the retailer remained confident in its ability to adapt, drawing on experience from recent crises, and was “constantly working on various scenarios internally”.

“We are making sure we head off any issues at the pass well ahead of time,” he said.

However, with uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz ongoing and no clear resolution in sight, the risk of disruption to UK food production and supply chains this summer remains a growing concern for farmers and the wider industry.