Fresh Defra figures suggest the UK pig breeding herd has fallen to a new low, raising fresh concerns over the sector’s ability to rebuild after the pig crisis and prompting industry figures to question the accuracy of the official data.
Statistics released just before Christmas show the breeding herd fell by 3.2% in the year to June 2025, dropping to 316,000 head. While Defra’s census also recorded a 0.5% increase in the overall pig herd to 4.74 million head, AHDB has questioned whether the June survey reflects the true position of the breeding sector.
The increase in total numbers was driven by a 0.9% rise in fattening pigs to 4.33 million head, masking continued pressure on breeding capacity. Defra’s figures suggest the female breeding herd has now fallen in each of the three years since the 2022 pig crisis, when numbers dropped sharply from 398,000 head to 343,000.
A breakdown of the data highlights ongoing concerns over future supply. Sows in pig fell by 1.5% year on year to 233,000 head, while in-pig gilt numbers were down 7.7% to 39,000. Dry or suckling sows declined by 8.6% to 44,000 head, gilts for first-time breeding were 2.4% lower at 82,000, and boar numbers fell by 6.2% to 9,000 head.
Regional trends varied markedly. Northern Ireland recorded growth in both breeding pigs, up 10% to 62,000 head, and fattening pigs, up 7.4% to 683,000. In England, the breeding herd declined by 4% to 313,000 head, with fattening pig numbers edging down to 3.34 million.
Scotland saw a sharper fall in breeding pigs, down 17% to 30,000 head, although fattening numbers rose slightly to 282,000. In Wales, breeding numbers dipped marginally to 2,200 head, while fattening pigs increased fractionally to 26,000.
AHDB senior analyst Freya Shuttleworth said the organisation has raised concerns directly with Defra over how the census data is compiled, stressing the need to “highlight the importance of accurate and timely data reporting”.
She said the June survey is based on responses from a sample of commercial holdings which are then scaled up to a national level, making it “subject to a non-response bias”, where changes in who responds can distort the overall picture. Other datasets, she added, suggest a smaller decline in breeding pig numbers.
Agrovision key performance indicators point to a 1% fall in the second quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year. Meanwhile, eMB submission data for Q2 shows both England and Scotland down 2%, compared with the larger declines recorded by Defra, while Northern Ireland figures indicate a 5% fall rather than the 10% increase shown in the census.
Ms Shuttleworth also pointed to market evidence supporting higher finishing numbers, with abattoir data showing clean pig slaughter up 2.4% year to date between January and November, underlining the gap between on-farm breeding trends and throughput in the wider supply chain.
