Wheat yields are running around 12% below the five-year average, according to AHDB
UK cereal growers are entering the final stages of harvest with wheat yields around 12% below average and spring barley down 19%, despite better-performing crops in northern areas bringing some modest improvement.
AHDB’s third Harvest 2026 report shows harvesting is now largely concentrated in Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England.
As combines have moved north, wetter conditions have slowed progress and pushed crop moisture levels higher than those recorded earlier in the harvest.
The wider yield picture remains disappointing following another season of prolonged dry weather.
Wheat yields are currently around 12% below the five-year average, a benchmark AHDB noted is already relatively low because it includes the below-average harvests of 2024 and 2025.
Spring barley has been hit harder, averaging 4.6 tonnes per hectare, around 19% below average.
Oats are currently averaging 4.4t/ha, down 17%, while winter barley harvesting is largely complete with yields broadly in line with the five-year average.
Oilseed rape has bucked the wider trend. With harvesting complete, average oilseed rape yields are running 19% above the UK five-year average.
Despite that stronger performance, AHDB said the national picture remains highly variable.
Differences between individual farms are substantial, with soil type, drilling date, organic fertiliser use and seed choice among the factors appearing to influence final performance.
Rainfall and soil moisture retention have also played a major role, with lighter soils generally suffering more from prolonged dry conditions than heavier land.
The variation is so significant that AHDB has not yet published crop production estimates for the 2026 harvest, saying it remains difficult to draw firm conclusions about the final national outcome.
Helen Plant, AHDB lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds, said: “As harvest moves into its final stages, the overall picture remains one of considerable variability. The differences we are seeing between farms are significant.”
She added: “Quality variation is another key feature of this harvest and will make crop management more challenging.”
AHDB said there are signs of improvement in some northern areas, but average cereal yields remain disappointing following limited rainfall from spring onwards.
Quality differences are also emerging as a significant issue, potentially complicating storage, crop management and marketing decisions.
Anthony Hopkins, AHDB director of cereals and oilseeds, said better yields in some northern areas had delivered a modest improvement to UK averages over the past fortnight.
However, he said the report demonstrated the impact of the hot and dry conditions experienced across large parts of the country.
“For many growers, this has been an extremely challenging harvest,” he said.
Mr Hopkins added that significant differences in crop quality would create further challenges for growers and grain buyers as marketing decisions are made.
AHDB’s report draws on a survey of 60 farms across the UK, alongside information from a panel of grain merchants on crop quality.
The levy board cautioned that individual farm results can differ considerably from national and regional trends because of local weather, soil type and management practices.
With significant differences in yield and quality still emerging, growers and grain buyers could face a more complicated marketing period as the remaining 2026 harvest comes in.