United States-Future looks good for pig farmers.

UNITED STATES-PIG FARMING FUTURE LOOKS PROMISING.

The light at the end of the tunnel could be looking much brighter for pork producers.

Farrow-to-finish producers could see some profitability in the coming months, says Darrell Mark, Extension livestock marketing economist at the University of Nebraska.

"There were some big losses at the end of 2008 and the first part of 2009, as much as $20 to $40 per head," he says.

"But, if you project out into 2009, for the farrow-to-finish operator, I think you can hedge a profit from April to September.

"It’s not going to be huge, but I would encourage producers to take advantage of that opportunity."

The USDA will release its Hogs and Pigs Report later this month, and Mark suspects it will not show a huge decrease in the breeding herd. That could be bad news, he says, because it indicates pork supplies are not falling.

But, even though the breeding herd may not be shrinking like most had expected, Mark adds there may be reason for the optimism shown by some producers.

"In late 2008, everyone lost money, but producers who had a good risk-management plan in place did not bleed money as much as the others did in early 2009," he says.

"So, while some producers are very negative, others aren’t.. They have been able to get their cost structure in place and hedge at the right time, and they have a chance to make a little money this year."

Demand continues to affect the pork and beef markets, both domestically and internationally, he says.

Fed cattle slaughter numbers have been down in recent weeks, but live and carcass weights have increased during the same period, Mark says.

"The supplies really aren’t burdensome, though, and slaughter numbers are down and continue to drop. But, the economy is affecting demand.

"Hamburger demand may continue to be steady, but the demand for the loin and anything we might cut a steak from is not."

While demand for beef and pork may be softer than it was a year ago, Mark says it is starting to look better when compared with chicken.

"The broiler industry was able to cut back production much more quickly than the beef and pork industries, when feeding margins got so high. Production is down 6 to 7 percent, which is historic for that industry."

Mark says, "Beef and pork may be more expensive than chicken, but chicken is not as cheap relative to beef and pork as it used to be. That could help demand for beef and pork improve."