Fears that American cheese and butter could flood British shelves have been dismissed by new analysis, which shows tariff cuts would pose little risk to UK farmers.
Even if tariffs were scrapped entirely, US dairy would remain a negligible player in the UK market, according to the analysis, published by AHDB.
The levy organisation modelled three scenarios for United States imports — tariff reductions of 25%, 50% and 100%.
In all cases, the results pointed to minimal impact on the domestic market, with any increases in US trade largely offset by reduced imports from the EU.
At present, the US exports just 65 tonnes of cheese to the UK each year, worth around £360,000, and mostly in low-value categories.
Under a full liberalisation scenario, volumes would rise by 121 tonnes — still a fraction of overall UK demand.
Butter tells a similar story. Current shipments amount to just 5 tonnes annually, valued at around £10,000.
Even with tariffs scrapped, AHDB projects only a marginal increase of 3 tonnes, leaving domestic supply and prices virtually untouched.
The findings highlight the UK’s limited importance as a destination for US dairy. American producers export an annual average of 470,000 tonnes of cheese, worth £1.8 billion, and 38,000 tonnes of butter, worth £163 million.
Key markets include Mexico, South Korea, Japan, Australia and Canada for cheese, and Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Panama and the Philippines for butter.
By comparison, British imports represent a rounding error in US trade figures. However, AHDB cautioned that its modelling is based on a three-year average to 2024 and cannot capture more recent changes in the US industry.
This year has already seen significant expansion in American dairy, with herd growth, rising milk production and new cheese-making facilities pushing output towards 6.9 billion kilograms.
That investment may encourage US exporters to seek out new markets, including the UK, particularly if tariffs are lowered.
Price differences also matter. The gap between US and UK/EU dairy prices could, if sustained, make American products more competitive in future.
But for now, AHDB concludes that tariff reductions alone would not alter the fundamentals: US dairy remains a minor presence in Britain, and its influence on domestic prices is expected to be negligible.
