GOOD times for lamb and some crop prices are predicted by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Dairy and beef have been left off ABARE’s list of rural products for which export earnings were forecast to increase in 2009-10.
The favoured list of farm products included wheat, barley, canola, lupins, peas, raw cotton, sugar and lamb.
ABARE said growth in global dairy production and steady import demand meant downward pressure on world prices in the short term and lower than average prices in 2009-10.
Australian farmgate milk prices were projected to fall by more than 19 per cent to average around 40 cents a litre in 2008-09 and to fall a further 14 per cent to 34.5 cents a litre in 2009-10.
Larger declines were predicted for regions in Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia which were more exposed to export markets.
ABARE expected farmgate prices to bottom at 29 cents a litre in 2010-11 and to rise to 31 cents a litre by 2013-14.
United Dairyfarmers of Victoria chairman Doug Chant said if ABARE’s projections were realised they would be "another kick in the guts for the biggest export market in Victoria".
ABARE executive director Phillip Glyde said a substantial increase in crop production combined with a significant depreciation of the Australian dollar was expected to support farm export earnings in the short term.
ABARE’s Sally Fletcher expected beef and veal export demand to fall in 2009-10, but said saleyard prices should remain high in 2010-11.
A recovery in export demand was expected to offset downward pressure on prices from a slightly higher turn-off, she said.
But a decline in prices was expected from 2011-12 onwards, partly as a result of increased slaughterings.
ABARE’s Tom Jackson said the average saleyard price of lambs was forecast to fall two cents to an average of 400 cents a kilogram in 2009-10, but decline gradually over the medium-term as supply outstripped demand growth.
"Lamb prices are forecast to remain high in 2009-10 because supply is expected to remain relatively tight and the demand for lamb is expected to remain relatively strong," Mr Jackson said.
The Australian weighted saleyard price for sheep was expected to increase three per cent to 180 cents a kilogram in 2009-10 and remain steady over the medium term.
