AUSTRALIA-RETAIL MEAT PRICES.
The retail price of many meat products is forecast to rise strongly during the next five years as supplies remain relatively tight.
Beef, lamb and pork prices are all set to rise by at least $1.50kg as demand remains high, continuing the rising trend of recent years.
But prices for chicken and milk are expected to remain constrained and hover around present levels.
Speakers at the ABARE Outlook conference in Canberra yesterday said the average retail price for beef will rise from $15.55kg in 2007-08 to $17kg in 2013-14.
At the same time, the price of lamb is forecast to rise from $12.41 to $13.96.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s director of Trade and Agriculture, Ken Ash, said that a range of long-term factors had increased the consumption of agricultural commodities.
Mr Ash said short-term measures were vital to address food security today, but medium and long-term actions were also needed.
The prices rises coincide with a forecast herd rebuilding in Australia, placing upward pressure on saleyard prices.
"An assumed lower Australian dollar in 2009-10 will increase the competitiveness of Australian beef in many export markets, including Japan and the Republic of Korea," ABARE spokeswoman Sally Fletcher said.
Ms Fletcher said the proportion of females in the national herd was the highest for 20 years, enabling a quicker recovery in the national beef herd.
The forecasts include chicken remaining as the most eaten meat in Australia at 38kg per person in 2008-09, followed by 36.3kg of beef, 10kg of lamb and 21.9kg of pig meat.
ABARE also forecast sheep meat production to continue rising as wool production continues to fall. Spokesman Tom Jackson said lamb prices were tipped to fall slightly in the medium term.
He said the purpose of the Australian sheep flock had shifted from production of wool towards meat production in the past 20 years.
