Australia-Sheep numbers down.

AUSTRALIA-SHEEP NUMBERS WELL DOWN.

THE real level of the Australian sheep flock is the subject of much conjecture in the bush at the moment.

Huge yardings in WA saleyards and record slaughter numbers of mutton recently are causing those who rely on the industry to worry whether this state has reached a level of critical mass.

Can enough ewes be bred to replace those that have gone out of the system?

According to ABARE current figures show the national sheep flock has declined by 33 per cent since the year 2000 to an estimated 79 million at June 2008, the lowest since 1920.

Live sheep exports rose by 12pc to 4.3 million head in 2008 as the outlook for 2009 will see the national flock decline a further 5pc.

Meat and Livestock Australia sheepmeat market analyst Kara Jones said live export had been dragged back this year due to demand outstripping supply.

Ms Jones said in terms of Australia reaching critical mass, no one had yet done any figures on the issue.

"Many producers are moving towards prime lambs and meat breeds but their flock is still predominately Merino based," Ms Jones said.

"The Merino flock is declining due to wethers being sold off and growers getting out of wool.

"The whole flock dynamic is changing."

Ms Jones said higher meat prices and lower wool prices was seeing a change in the make up of the national flock, which was moving towards meat breeds.

"In WA mutton slaughter has dropped back and in certain pockets of Australia some people are looking to rebuild their flock," she said.

"Although there is currently a great incentive to sell due to higher prices, hopefully producers will hold onto their numbers and look toward rebuilding their flock.

"It really comes down to producers holding onto their numbers.

"In New Zealand there has been an increase in lamb slaughter due to people shifting into dairy."

She said lamb production in the southern parts of Australia were dropping due to harsh conditions and a shift towards cropping.

"In WA lamb slaughter for this year is down by 0.7pc," she said.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures also show that mutton production has dropped back significantly by 30pc.

"Live export has dropped also, back by 1.3pc in WA as exporters are moving to source sheep from South Australia and Victoria."

Sheepmeats Council said Australia’s declining sheep supply is limiting Australia’s access to the lucrative livestock export market for sheepmeat producers in the Middle East.