British government and farmers must rise to climate change challenge
Global warming poses enormous challenges to British agriculture, but could also hold a number of opportunities, according to speakers at a prestigious seminar this week.
The seminar, entitled Land Use Priorities, was one of a series of conferences held by the Royal Bath and West of England Society. Organised in conjunction with the Royal Geographical Society, it outlined impending changes to land use in the face of climate change and population growth.
World population was set to increase from 6bn to 9bn by 2050, said Lord Cameron, former chairman of the Countryside Agency. With global Gross Domestic Product forecast to rise by 400% over the next 50 years, leading to an increase in meat consumption, farmers would have to produce significantly more food.
But water shortages and global warming meant production methods would have to change, and both farmers and governments had to embrace a low carbon future. "Politicians must take their obligations seriously to ensure sustainable food production around the world – and to ensure farmers are rewarded for their efforts," said Lord Cameron. "There are opportunities for enterprising land managers, and we need to inspire the world to change and meet this new and exciting future."
British farmers were particularly well placed to increase food production, and to mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration and renewable fuels, said Professor Brian Hoskins, a leading authority on global weather patterns. He expected Equatorial countries to get even hotter and drier, making it extremely difficult for food production. But while Northern Europe would also get warmer, the climate would allow productive farming to continue.
By 2020 average summer temperatures in the UK were likely to be 1°C warmer than in the period 1960-1990 – but by the 2080s that could increase to 5°C, and the hottest single days could be 10°C higher. Rainfall could halve in the summertime, but double in winter, with far greater potential for heavy storms and flooding, he said.
"Climate change has major implications for the rural future – clearly adaptation has to occur." But with government targets of reducing CO2 emissions by 80% between 1990 and 2050, farmers could play a key role in producing renewable energy and combating global warming.
However, the government had to offer greater incentives for land managers to invest in energy production, carbon sequestration and conservation of the environment, said the Earl of Selborne, former president of the Royal Agricultural Society of England.
"There are enormous benefits that land managers can and should provide – but priorities have to be balanced, and we need to find a way to pay them for those benefits. Unless society can work out how to reward farmers for delivering all of these services it probably isn’t going to happen."
