Chief Economist Gives Island’s Farmers Food For Thought
Farmers on Anglesey were given food for thought at their recent NFU Cymru county conference when the NFU's Chief Economist, Carmen Suarez, gave them a forecast of what lies ahead for the agricultural industry.
Ms Suarez warned those present at the meeting that global markets are entering a period of volatility, due in part to the growing world population and the destabilising effects of climate change. "Everything comes down to supply and demand. As long as there are people in the world, farmers know they will always have demand what they produce. But in terms of supply, climate change pressures must be taken into account," said Ms Suarez.
She added, "The world population which currently stands at around 6.5 billion is growing at a rate of 70 million a year, with the vast majority of this growth coming from Asia and Africa. The impact is likely to be felt by farmers in Wales as there will be increased demand for food, which farmers here will be well placed to provide in comparison with many countries where land and water is scarce.
"Global wheat stocks are at their lowest since the 1970s and water availability and erosion are major factors which may prevent half the world's available land from being farmed. Whilst the livestock sector is currently experiencing a worldwide increase in the price of wheat, Welsh farmers who use grass based systems should be able to keep production costs comparably low. Unfortunately of course grass farmers are being hard hit at the moment with high fertilizer prices due to low supplies and high global demand
"The price of red meat is also forecasted to rise in the next couple of years, so hopefully prospects will improve after what has been an extremely difficult six months for the farming industry. However this will be an average rise and there will be significant fluctuations within that period"
Trevor Lloyd, NFU Cymru Chairman for Anglesey added, "2007 posed enormous difficulties for the livestock sector, which cannot survive spiralling costs and diminishing returns. Whilst it's good to hear that there is light at the end of the tunnel, we need to be able to turn things around in the next five years to ensure our future in the industry.
"I'm pleased at least that we have a Rural Affairs Minister who is willing to engage with us and I hope the Assembly Government will do as much as they can to support Welsh agriculture. They can start by significantly reducing the red tape that is strangling farming and by making it an industry our young people want to be involve in"
