China-Pork production.

CHINA-PORK PRODUCTION.

FAS Beijing forecasts China’s pork production will continue rising in 2009 to

48.8 million metric tons, though higher pork production and lower prices will

reduce 2009 pork imports by nearly half to 300,000 tons, according to a U.S.

Department of Agriculture attache report posted Thursday on the Foreign

Agricultural Services Web site.

China’s 2009 beef production is expected to decline two percent to six MMT,

as low beef producer returns dampen growth. Post forecasts China’s breeding

cow imports will rise seven percent to 16,000 head, fueled by genetic

improvement efforts in the dairy sector. China’s live swine imports are

expected to fall 25 percent from sharply higher levels in 2008 to under 9,000

head.

FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts continued steady growth in China’s total meat

production in 2009, rising four percent to 75.4 million metric tons (MMT).

Pork production is expected to approach 50 million metric tons, as producers

continue to recover from a devastating outbreak of blue ear disease in 2007.

Rising domestic pork shipments have been fueled by direct government subsidies

to quickly stimulate production and reduce consumer pork prices.

Post forecasts China’s beef production in 2009 will decline two percent to 6

MMT, as low beef producer returns dampen beef cow production. China maintains

a ban on U.S. bovine products, including beef and live cattle due to

BSE-related restrictions. Post expects China’s 2009 breeding cattle imports to

increase by seven percent to 16,000 head as a result of China’s stepped up

efforts to improve dairy genetics. Post forecasts 2009 Chinese direct imports

of beef will decrease by 10 percent to 9,000 MT, primarily due to slow sales of

high-end products. Significantly higher quantities of imported beef will

continue to move through gray channels. Post believes China’s live cattle and

beef exports in 2009 to decline by nine and 12 percent to 30,000 head and

52,000 tons respectively due to an impact of world-wide financial crisis.

Post forecasts China’s pork production in 2009 will rise by four percent to

48.7 MMT (CWE). Lower pork prices will fuel higher consumer pork demand

compared to 2008 levels. China’s breeding swine imports are expected to

decline 25 percent from last year’s record imports to 9,000 head as lower

prices hinder growth in piglet and fattening swine placement. Post forecasts

China’s 2009 live swine exports to rise three percent to 1.7 million head.

Post forecasts China’s 2009 pork exports to decrease by six percent to 210,000

tons due to weak demand from export markets impacted by the world financial

crisis.

In January 2009, seven Chinese government agencies announced a swine price

alert system and subsidy program designed to ensure pork producers earn

sufficient returns as prices fall and/or input costs rise. This is the first

time government agencies have joined forces to monitor pork producer returns

and ensure farm-level incentives are maintained, underscoring the importance

the government is placing on providing stable and sufficient pork supplies..