Matt Ware is the NFU's head of government and parliamentary affairs, based in their Westminster office. He writes:
With the tightest General Election in modern political history, the rural vote is arguably the big battle ground. Get out beyond the big urban areas and you’ll find two-way marginal seats abound.
To be precise there are 37 rural marginal seats in England alone where the incumbent party has less than a 10% majority (5% point swing).
But the real rural voting question is what will happen to the Liberal Democrat vote in its rural South West, Welsh, Cumbrian, North East and Scottish strongholds?
While the Lib Dem vote tends to hold better in sitting seats than the national polling trends, there are a large number of marginal rural Lib Dem seats. Where the Lib Dem vote collapses as third contender in a seat, where will those votes go, as that may well swing a seat?
Equally, what impact will UKIP have on the Conservative and Labour marginal seats in rural areas? Who will UKIP attract votes from and how will this affect the outcome in each individual seat?
In Scotland the SNP are polling consistently high and certain to overthrow not only Labour but also the Lib Dems in many seats.
Given this unprecedented complexity, it is not wise to make predictions. What I can say is this is likely to be one of the most tactical and individual elections ever seen, with seat by seat dynamics rather than national trends. As such, this represents a real opportunity for effective local lobbying on your local candidates, who I can assure you will be in “listening mode” and receptive to policy suggestions in the NFU manifesto.
So are any ‘farming seats’ particularly vulnerable?
Yes. Most notably Defra Ministers George Eustice, (second most marginal rural English seat with a 66 majority) and his fellow Defra Minister Dan Rogerson who has asmall 6.35% majority.
Farming MPs on the rural marginal list include, in third place with a 214 majority, Nottinghamshire farmer Mark Spencer, who is the ex-National Federation of Young Farmers chairman. Yorkshire farmer Julian Sturdy is 27th on the list; both these MP’s have been very strong advocates for the industry in the last five years.
We have already seen the departure of ex Defra Ministers Jim Paice and David Heath at the end of March as parliament was dissolved. Both MP’s have served their constituencies and the sector admirably over many years, whilst Jim Paice is also a farmer in his own right and was National YFC chairman in his youth.
