The pace of dairy producer losses in Great Britain has eased, but mounting price pressure and rising costs mean further exits from the sector are increasingly likely.
New AHDB analysis from a survey of major milk buyers estimates that there were 7,010 dairy producers operating in Great Britain as of October 2025.
Producer numbers fell by just 30 between April and October, suggesting that firm milk prices and improved profitability over the summer temporarily slowed the pace of exits.
However, the longer-term picture remains one of contraction, with an estimated 190 producers leaving the industry over the past year, a decline of 2.6%, indicating that most exits took place during last winter.
Herd data reinforces the trend, according to the analysis. British Cattle Movement Service figures show the GB milking herd stood at 1.60 million head as of 1 July 2025, down 0.6% on the previous year.
While producer numbers have stabilised in recent months, average output per farm has continued to climb. For the year from October 2024 to October 2025, average milk production per holding increased by 6.6% to an estimated 1.82 million litres.
The figures underline the ongoing consolidation of the sector, with fewer but larger farms producing an increasing share of national milk volumes.
Looking ahead, AHDB says that market conditions are expected to become more challenging. Oversupply in both domestic and global dairy markets is putting downward pressure on prices, with farmgate milk prices likely to feel the impact in the months ahead.
Many processors have already announced substantial price reductions covering the November to January period, and further cuts cannot be ruled out.
At the same time, rising input costs, including labour and forage, alongside an expanding environmental regulatory burden, are tightening margins.
Taken together, AHDB notes that these factors mean further producer exits over the next six months would not be surprising if market conditions deteriorate.
